žŷɛƚŝƚƶƚŝžŷăů žƶƌƚ žĩ zžŵăŷŝă kŷ ƚśğ ŵăƚƚğƌ žĩ ƚśğ đžŷɛƚŝƚƶƚŝžŷăůŝƚlj žĩ ŷăƚŝžŷăů ůğőŝɛůăƚŝžŷ őžǀğƌŷŝŷő ůğőăů đăɖăđŝƚlj ăŷě ƚśğ őƶăƌěŝăŷɛśŝɖ ɛljɛƚğŵ &ŝůğ ŷž͘ ϲϵϱͬϯϭϭϳ ;eăďžɛŷljŝ ůğdžăŷěƌƶ ^ƚğĩăŷ &ƌăŷđŝɛđϳ dălj ϯϭϭϳ 0hqwdo ‘lvdelolw $gyrfdf &hqwuh + %xgdshvw +xqjdu who hpdlo pgdf#pgdfruj &rqwdfw 2dqd *luohvfx odzhu rdqd#pgdfruj zhevlwh zzzpgdfruj žŷƚğŷƚɛ ks zs/ t ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ ϯ d, wz/’d ^,/&d /e /ed zed/ke> >t ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ ϯ d, h e d, khe/> k& hzkw ͛^ /^/>/dz ^dez^ ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ ϭϭ he/d ed/ke^͛ /^/>/dz ^dez^ ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ ϭϲ wzd/> ydw> ^͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ ϭϵ ks zs/ t 7klv zulwwhq vxeplvvlrq lv surylghg lq 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ϰϳϭϱϯͬϭϲ͕ ũƶěőŵğŷƚ žĩ ϭϰ ežǀğŵďğƌ ϯϭϭϯ͘ ϵ ^ğğ śƚƚɖ͗ͬͬǁǁǁ͘žśđśƌ͘žƌőͬžđƶŵğŷƚɛͬ,zžěŝğɛͬzwͬk,,zͺdăɖͺzw͘ɖěĩ ;ůăɛƚ ăđđğɛɛğě͗ ϯϭ :ƶůlj ϯϭϭϲϳ͘ ^ƚăƚƶɛ žĩ ƌăƚŝĩŝđăƚŝžŷɛ đăŷ ďğ đžŷɛƶůƚğě ăƚ śƚƚɖ͗ͬͬƚďŝŷƚğƌŷğƚ͘žśđśƌ͘žƌőͬͺůăljžƶƚɛͬdƌğăƚljžělj džƚğƌŷăůͬdƌğăƚlj͘ăɛɖdž͍žƶŷƚƌlj/сϭϭϰθ>ăŷőс e;ůăɛƚ ăđđğɛɛğě͗ ϯϭ :ƶůlj ϯϭϭϲϳ͘ ϭϭŷěƌğăɛ ŝŵžɖžƶůžɛ͕ dśğ he žŷǀğŷƚŝžŷ žŷ ƚśğ zŝőśƚɛ žĩ wğƌɛžŷɛ ǁŝƚś ŝɛăďŝůŝƚŝğɛ ;ɛśőăƚğ wƶďůŝɛśŝŷő >ŝŵŝƚğě͕ ϯϭϭϭϳ ăƚ ϳϵ͘ ϭϭ hŷŝƚğě eăƚŝžŷɛ kĩĩŝđğƌ žĩ ƚśğ ,ŝőś žŵŵŝɛɛŝžŷğƌ ĩžƌ ,ƶŵăŷ zŝőśƚɛ ;k,,zϳ͕ &ƌžŵ džđůƶɛŝžŷ ƚž ƌƶăůŝƚlj͗ zğăůŝnjŝŷő ƚśğ zŝőśƚɛ žĩ wğƌɛžŷɛ ǁŝƚś ŝɛăďŝůŝƚŝğɛ͕ ,ăŷěďžžŭ ĩžƌ wăƌůŝăŵğŷƚăƌŝăŷɛ žŷ ƚśğ žŷǀğŷƚŝžŷ žŷ ƚśğ zŝőśƚɛ žĩ wğƌɛžŷɛ ǁŝƚś ŝɛăďŝůŝƚŝğɛ ăŷě ŝƚɛ kɖƚŝžŷăů wƌžƚžđžů ;ϯϭϭϳϳ͕ ăƚ ϱ͘ wkdw d phglfdo prgho ri glvdelolw zklfk ylhzv lqglylgxdov zlwk lpsdluphqwv dv srzhuohvv lq qhhg ri surwhfwlrq dqg lqfdsdeoh lv qr orqjhu dssursuldwh 3hrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv kdyh iru wrr orqj ehhq dvvxphg wr eh lqfdsdeoh ri pdqdjlqj wkhlu diidluv pdnlqj frpshwhqw ghflvlrqv ru sduwlflsdwlqj lq 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dqg vxemhfwhg dw wkh zloo ri wkhlu jxdugldqv wr irufhg phglfdwlrq dqg skvlfdo uhvwudlqwv zkhq lq vxfk lqvwlwxwlrqv ,w lv dovr zruwk phqwlrqlqj wkdw vxfk dexvhv duh qrw vshflilf wr frxqwulhv zlwk fhuwdlq lqfrph ohyhov ru iurp fhuwdlq jhrjudsklfdo duhdv wkh kdsshq dfurvv wkh joreh zkhuhyhu jxdugldqvkls vvwhpv h[lvw ,q d uhsruw wkh 86 *ryhuqphqw $ffrxqwdelolw 2iilfh *$2 irxqg kxqguhgv ri doohjdwlrqv ri skvlfdo dexvh qhjohfw dqg ilqdqfldo h[sorlwdwlrq e jxdugldqv lq vwdwhv dqg wkh ‘lvwulfw ri &roxpeld ehwzhhq dqg *xdugldqv dovr vwroh ploolrq lq dvvhwv iurp wkhlu zdugv lq wkdw shulrg wkh *$2 uhsruwhg ,q %xojduld lw kdv ehhq uhsruwhg wkdw shrsoh xqghu jxdugldqvkls fdq eh h[srvhg wr skvlfdo dqg phqwdo kdup dqg wkdw jxdugldqvkls surprwhv dedqgrqphqw dqg glvorfdwlrq ,q &urdwld lw kdv ehhq uhsruwhg wkdw zkhq shrsoh duh sodfhg xqghu jxdugldqvkls lw hqdeohv wkhlu irufhg sodfhphqw lq svfkldwulf krvslwdov iru hduv dw d wlph zkhuh wkh duh vxemhfwhg wr irufhg dqg qrqfrqvhqvxdo wuhdwphqw 7kh )lqqlvk vvwhp ri jxdugldqvkls kdv irufhg shrsoh wr olyh lq vhjuhjdwhg lqvwlwxwlrqv idu iurp iulhqgv ru idplolhv zkr zdqw wr olyh wrjhwkhu zlwk wkhp ϭϵ ^ğğ ğdžăŵɖůğɛ žĩ ɛƶđś đăɛğɛ ŝŷ ŵŝůlj ‘ƶƌŷžŷ͘ ‘ƶăƌěŝăŷɛśŝɖ ŝŷ ƚśğ h^͗ ɖƌžƚğđƚŝžŷ žƌ ğdžɖůžŝƚăƚŝžŷ͍ eğdžƚ ǀğŷƶğ͕ ϯϯ dălj ϯϭϭϲ͕ ăǀăŝůăďůğ ăƚ śƚƚɖ͗ͬͬǁǁǁ͘ŷğdžƚăǀğŷƶğ͘žƌőͬőƶăƌěŝăŷɛśŝɖͳƶͳɛͳɖƌžƚğđƚŝžŷͳğdžɖůžŝƚăƚŝžŷͬ ;ůăɛƚ ăđđğɛɛğě ϯϭ :ƶůlj ϯϭϭϲϳ͖ ƶƌžɖğăŷ hŷŝžŷ őğŷđlj ĩžƌ &ƶŷěăŵğŷƚăů zŝőśƚɛ͕ >ğőăů đăɖăđŝƚlj žĩ ɖğƌɛžŷɛ ǁŝƚś ŝŷƚğůůğđƚƶăů ěŝɛăďŝůŝƚŝğɛ ăŷě ɖğƌɛžŷɛ ǁŝƚś ŵğŷƚăů śğăůƚś ɖƌžďůğŵɛ ;>ƶdžğŵďžƶƌő͕ ϯϭϭϯϳ͕ ăǀăŝůăďůğ ăƚ śƚƚɖ͗ͬͬĩƌă͘ğƶƌžɖă͘ğƶͬɛŝƚğɛͬěğĩăƶůƚͬĩŝůğɛͬůğőăůͳđăɖăđŝƚljͳŝŷƚğůůğđƚƶăůͳěŝɛăďŝůŝƚŝğɛͳŵğŷƚăůͳśğăůƚśͳɖƌžďůğŵɛ͘ɖěĩ ;ůăɛƚ ăđđğɛɛğě ϯϭ :ƶůlj ϯϭϭϲϳ ăƚ ϰϰ͘ ϯϭ ^ğğ͕ ăŵžŷő žƚśğƌɛ͕ ^ƚăŷğǀ ǀ͘ ƶůőăƌŝă͕ ĩŷ ϯ͖ ^śƚƶŭăƚƶƌžǀ ǀ͘ zƶɛɛŝă͕ ĩŷ ϭ͖ ăŷě ^ƚăŷŭžǀ ǀ͘ ƶůőăƌŝă͕ ĩŷ ϯ͘ &žƌ ğdžăŵɖůğɛ žƶƚɛŝěğ ƶƌžɖğ͕ ɛğğ ŵŝůlj ‘ƶƌŷžŷ͘ ‘ƶăƌěŝăŷɛśŝɖ ŝŷ ƚśğ h^͗ ɖƌžƚğđƚŝžŷ žƌ ğdžɖůžŝƚăƚŝžŷ͍͕ ĩŷ ϯϲ͘ ϯϭ kůŝǀğƌ >ğǁŝɛ͕ tślj ɛśžƶůě ƶůőăƌŝă đśăŷőğ ŝƚɛ őƶăƌěŝăŷɛśŝɖ ɛljɛƚğŵ͍ ;dğŷƚăů ŝɛăďŝůŝƚlj ěǀžđăđlj ğŷƚƌğ͕ ϯϭϭϲϳ͕ ăǀăŝůăďůğ ăƚ śƚƚɖ͗ͬͬŵěăđ͘žƌőͬğŷͬžůŝǀğƌƚăůŭɛͬϯϭϭϲͬϭϯͬϭϰͬǁśljͳɛśžƶůěͳďƶůőăƌŝăͳđśăŷőğͳŝƚɛͳőƶăƌěŝăŷɛśŝɖͳɛljɛƚğŵ ;ůăɛƚ ăđđğɛɛğě ϯϭ :ƶůlj ϯϭϭϲϳ͘ ϯϯ,ƶŵăŷ zŝőśƚɛ tăƚđś͕ ŷăζɛ ɛƚžƌlj͗ ĩŝőśƚŝŷő ĩžƌ ěŝɛăďŝůŝƚlj ƌŝőśƚɛ ŝŷ ƌžăƚŝă͕ ϯϭϭϱ͕ ăǀăŝůăďůğ ăƚ śƚƚɖɛ͗ͬͬǁǁǁ͘śƌǁ͘žƌőͬŷğǁɛͬϯϭϭϱͬϭϭͬϯϭͬăŷăɛͳɛƚžƌljͳĩŝőśƚŝŷőͳěŝɛăďŝůŝƚljͳƌŝőśƚɛͳđƌžăƚŝă ;ůăɛƚ ăđđğɛɛğě ϯϭ :ƶůlj ϯϭϭϲϳ͘ ϯϯdğŷƚăů ŝɛăďŝůŝƚlj ěǀžđăđlj ğŷƚƌğ͕ &ŝŷŷŝɛś ŵăŷ ǁŝƚś ŝŷƚğůůğđƚƶăů ěŝɛăďŝůŝƚŝğɛ ăɛŭɛ ƚśğ ^ƚƌăɛďžƶƌő žƶƌƚ͗ wƌžƚğđƚ ŵlj ĩăŵŝůlj ƌŝőśƚɛ͕ ;d͕ ϯϭϭϲϳ͕ ăǀăŝůăďůğ ăƚ śƚƚɖ͗ͬͬŵěăđ͘žƌőͬğŷͬŷğǁɛͬĩŝŷŷŝɛśͳŵăŷͳŝŷƚğůůğđƚƶăůͳěŝɛăďŝůŝƚljͳăɛŭɛͳɛƚƌăɛďžƶƌőͳđžƶƌƚͳɖƌžƚğđƚͳŵljͳĩăŵŝůljͳƌŝőśƚɛ ;ůăɛƚ ăđđğɛɛğě ϯϭ :ƶůlj ϯϭϭϲϳ͘ ,q wkh +xqjduldq 2pexgvpdq lqlwldwhg dq h[ riilflr lqyhvwljdwlrq lqwr wkh kxpdq uljkwv ylrodwlrqv h[shulhqfhg e shrsoh sodfhg xqghu jxdugldqvkls 7kh 2pexgvpdq·v uhsruw uhdfkhg rxw wr jxdugldqvkls dxwkrulwlhv dqg flylo vrflhw rujdqlvdwlrqv lqfoxglqj rujdqlvdwlrqv uhsuhvhqwlqj shrsoh zlwk phqwdo glvdelolwlhv wr vkduh 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dqg vhfxulw ri wkh shuvrqµ 7kh &53’ &rpplwwhh hpskdvlvhv wkdw ϯϰdśğ žƚśğƌ ăƌğă ǁśğƌğ ɖğžɖůğ ƶŷěğƌ őƶăƌěŝăŷɛśŝɖ đśăůůğŷőğě ƚśğŝƌ őƶăƌěŝăŷ͛ɛ ěğđŝɛŝžŷɛ đžŷđğƌŷğě ƚśğ ɖůăđğŵğŷƚ ŝŷ ƌğɛŝěğŷƚŝăů ɛžđŝăů đăƌğ ŝŷɛƚŝƚƶƚŝžŷɛ͘ ϯϱžŵŵŝɛɛŝžŷğƌ ĩžƌ &ƶŷěăŵğŷƚăů zŝőśƚɛ͕ zğɖžƌƚ žĩ ƚśğ žŵŵŝɛɛŝžŷğƌ ĩžƌ &ƶŷěăŵğŷƚăů zŝőśƚɛ ŝŷ đăɛğ ež͘ :ͳϯϳϭϵͬϯϭϭϲ͕ ϯϭϭϲ͘ ϯϲzw žŵŵŝƚƚğğ ‘ğŷğƌăů žŵŵğŷƚ ež͘ ϭ͕ ĩŷ ϭϱ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă͘ θ͘ ϯϳ ͞tśž ‘ğƚɛ ƚž ğđŝěğ͕͟ ĩŷ ϭϯ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă͘ ϭ͘ϯ͘ ϯθ zw žŵŵŝƚƚğğ ‘ğŷğƌăů žŵŵğŷƚ ež͘ ϭ͕ ĩŷ ϭϱ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă͘ ϰϭ͘ ´7kh ghqldo ri wkh ohjdo fdsdflw ri shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv dqg wkhlu ghwhqwlrq lq lqvwlwxwlrqv djdlqvw wkhlu zloo hlwkhu zlwkrxw wkhlu frqvhqw ru zlwk wkh frqvhqw ri d vxevwlwxwh ghflvlrqpdnhu lv dq rqjrlqj sureohp 7klv sudfwlfh frqvwlwxwhv duelwudu ghsulydwlrq ri olehuw dqg ylrodwhv duwlfohv dqg ri wkh &rqyhqwlrq 6wdwhv sduwlhv pxvw uhiudlq iurp vxfk sudfwlfhv dqg hvwdeolvk d phfkdqlvp wr uhylhz fdvhv zkhuhe shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv kdyh ehhq sodfhg lq d uhvlghqwldo vhwwlqj zlwkrxw wkhlu vshflilf frqvhqwµ 7kh (xurshdq &rxuw ri +xpdq 5ljkwv kdv dovr dfnqrzohgjhg wkh olqn ehwzhhq ghqldo ri ohjdo fdsdflw dqg wkh uljkw wr olehuw 7kh uljkw wr ohjdo fdsdflw kdv ixuwkhu ehhq forvho dvvrfldwhg zlwk dqg frqvlghuhg wr lpsdfw rq wkh uljkwv ri shrsoh zlwk glvdelolw wr dffhvv wr mxvwlfh $uwlfoh iuhhgrp iurp wruwxuh $uwlfoh iuhhgrp iurp ylrohqfh h[sorlwdwlrq dqg dexvh $uwlfoh shuvrqdo lqwhjulw $uwlfoh qdwlrqdolw $uwlfoh sulydf $uwlfoh dqg srolwlfdo sduwlflsdwlrq $uwlfoh )xuwkhu vwdqgdugv rq ohjdo fdsdflw dqg vxssruwhg ghflvlrqpdnlqj )urp wkh &53’ shuvshfwlyh zklfk sulrulwlvhv d irfxv rq vxssruw qhhgv lw ehfrphv pruh hylghqw wkdw udwkhu wkdq surwhfwlqj wkh uljkwv ri shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv dqg idflolwdwlqj wkh h[huflvh ri wkrvh uljkwv jxdugldqvkls uhjlphv wkhpvhoyhv uhsuhvhqw d ohjdo eduulhu wr wkh h[huflvh ri ixqgdphqwdo kxpdq uljkwv dqg ohdyh lqglylgxdov yxoqhudeoh wr dexvh ,qvwhdg ri shushwxdwlqj wkhvh uhjlphv 6wdwhv qhhg wr frqvlghu krz dqg wr zkdw h[whqw wkh fdq surylgh vxssruw wr 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žŵŵğŷƚ ež͘ ϭ͕ ĩŷ ϭϱ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă͘ ϯθ͘ ϯϯ zw žŵŵŝƚƚğğ ‘ğŷğƌăů žŵŵğŷƚ ež͘ ϭ͕ ĩŷ ϭϱ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă͘ ϰϯ͘ ϯϯ zw žŵŵŝƚƚğğ ‘ğŷğƌăů žŵŵğŷƚ ež͘ ϭ͕ ĩŷ ϭϱ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă͘ ϰϯ͘ ϯϰ zw žŵŵŝƚƚğğ ‘ğŷğƌăů žŵŵğŷƚ ež͘ ϭ͕ ĩŷ ϭϱ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă͘ ϰϳ͘ ůɛž͕ ŝŷ ^śƚƶŭăƚƶƌžǀ ǀ͘ zƶɛɛŝă͕ ĩŷ ϭ͕ ƚśğ ƶƌžɖğăŷ žƶƌƚ žĩ ,ƶŵăŷ zŝőśƚɛ ĩžƶŷě ƚśğ đžŵɖůğƚğ ěğŷŝăů žĩ ůğőăů đăɖăđŝƚlj ƚž ǀŝžůăƚğ ƌƚŝđůğ θ žĩ ƚśğ žŷǀğŷƚŝžŷ͘ ϯϱ zw žŵŵŝƚƚğğ ‘ğŷğƌăů žŵŵğŷƚ ež͘ ϭ͕ ĩŷ ϭϱ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă͘ ϰθ ͳ ϰϵ͘ ^ğğ ăůɛž͕ ěğđŝɛŝžŷ žĩ ƚśğ ƶƌžɖğăŷ žƶƌƚ žĩ ,ƶŵăŷ zŝőśƚɛ ŝŷ ůăũžɛ <ŝɛɛ ǀ͘ ,ƶŷőăƌlj͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϯθθϯϯͬϭϲ͕ ũƶěőŵğŷƚ žĩ ϯϭ dălj ϯϭϭϭ͘ ri (xursh mxgjphqwv ri wkh (&w+5 dqg grfxphqwv ri wkh (xurshdq 8qlrq )xqgdphqwdo 5ljkwv $jhqf d, h e d, khe/> k& hzkw ͛^ /^/>/dz ^dez^ 7khuh duh d zlgh udqjh ri erglhv dqg lqvwuxphqwv zklfk duh uhohydqw iru glvdelolw uljkwv dw erwk wkh ohyho ri wkh (xurshdq 8qlrq dqg wkh ohyho ri wkh &rxqflo ri (xursh :kloh zh zloo vkruwo suhvhqw wkhp ehoorz lw lv lpsruwdqw wr hpskdvl]h wkdw h[fhsw ,uhodqg doo rwkhu (8 0hpehu 6wdwhv kdyh udwlilhg wkh &53’ zklfk zdv dovr udwlilhg e wkh (8 lwvhoi ehlqj wkh iluvw kxpdq uljkwv wuhdw wkh (8 kdv hyhu udwlilhg dv d vwdqglqj srolwlfdo hqwlw 0ruhryhu ,wv surylvlrqv duh ohjdoo elqglqj iru prvw &rxqflo ri (xursh 0hpehu 6wdwhv ² 0hpehu 6wdwhv vljqhg dqg 0hpehu 6wdwhv kdyh douhdg udwlilhg wkh &53’ (xurshdq 8qlrq 7kh (xurshdq 8qlrq udwlilhg wkh &53′ lq /ŷƚğƌŷăƚŝžŷăů ăőƌğğŵğŷƚɛ ƚž ǁśŝđś ƚśğ h ŝɛ ă ɖăƌƚlj đžŷɛƚŝƚƶƚğ ɖăƌƚ žĩ h ůăǁ ăŷě ăƌğ ďŝŷěŝŷő žŷ ƚśğ h ŝŷɛƚŝƚƶƚŝžŷɛ ;ăŷě ƚśğ dğŵďğƌ ^ƚăƚğɛϳ͘ /ŷ ăěěŝƚŝžŷ͕ ɛƶđś ăőƌğğŵğŷƚɛ ɖƌğǀăŝů žǀğƌ ɖƌžǀŝɛŝžŷɛ žĩ h ůăǁ͕ ɛƶđś ăɛ ƌğőƶůăƚŝžŷɛ͕ ěŝƌğđƚŝǀğɛ͕ ěğđŝɛŝžŷɛ͕ ƌğđžŵŵğŷěăƚŝžŷɛ ăŷě žɖŝŷŝžŷɛ͕ ăŷě h ůğőŝɛůăƚŝžŷ ŵƶɛƚ ďğ ŝŷƚğƌɖƌğƚğě ăŷě ăɖɖůŝğě ŝŷ ă ŵăŷŷğƌ ƚśăƚ ŝɛ đžŷɛŝɛƚğŷƚ ǁŝƚś ƚśğ ŝŷƚğƌŷăƚŝžŷăů ăőƌğğŵğŷƚ͘ϯϵ 7kxv wkh (8 lv reoljhg wr frpso zlwk wkh &53′ lq wkrvh duhdv zklfk idoo xqghu (8 frpshwhqfhv 7kh (xurshdq ‘lvdelolw 6wudwhj xqghuolqhv wkdw ´(8 dfwlrq zloo vxssruw dqg vxssohphqw qdwlrqdo srolflhv dqg surjudpphv wr surprwh htxdolw iru lqvwdqfh e surprwlqj wkh frqiruplw ri 0hpehu 6wdwh ohjlvodwlrq rq ohjdo fdsdflw zlwk wkh 81 &rqyhqwlrqµ 7kh &rpplvvlrq fdoohg rq 0hpehu 6wdwhv vhyhudo wlphv wr vkduh jrrg sudfwlfhv hvshfldoo lq wkh ilhog ri lpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkh uljkw wr ohjdo fdsdflw &rxqflo ri (xursh dqg wkh (xurshdq &rxuw iru +xpdq 5ljkwv ,q wkh 3duoldphqwdu $vvhpeo ri wkh &rxqflo ri (xursh lqylwhg 0hpehu 6wdwhv wr ´jxdudqwhh wkdw shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv uhwdlq dqg h[huflvh ohjdo fdsdflw rq dq htxdo edvlv zlwk rwkhu phpehuv ri vrflhwµ zklfk fdq rqo eh dfklhyhg e hqvxulqj lqwhu dold wkdw wkh uljkw ri shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv wr ´pdnh ϯϲ ^ğğ ğő͘ žŵŵŝɛɛŝžŷğƌ ĩžƌ ,ƶŵăŷ zŝőśƚɛ žĩ ƚśğ žƶŷđŝů žĩ ƶƌžɖğ͘ dśğ ƌŝőśƚ žĩ ɖğžɖůğ ǁŝƚś ěŝɛăďŝůŝƚŝğɛ ƚž ůŝǀğ ŝŷěğɖğŷěğŷƚůlj ăŷě ďğ ŝŷđůƶěğě ŝŷ ƚśğ đžŵŵƶŷŝƚlj͘ /ɛɛƶğ wăɖğƌ đžŵŵŝɛɛŝžŷğě ăŷě ɖƶďůŝɛśğě ďlj dśžŵăɛ ,ăŵŵăƌďğƌő͘ žŵŵ,ͬ/ɛɛƶğwăɖğƌ;ϯϭϭϯϳϯ͖ tśž őğƚɛ ƚž ěğđŝěğ͍͕ ĩŷ ϭϯ͘ ϯϳ ^ğğ ğő͘ >ăɛśŝŷ ǀ zƶɛɛŝă͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϯϯϭϭϳͬϭϯ͕ ũƶěőğŵğŷƚ žĩ ϯϯ :ăŷƶăƌlj ϯϭϭϯ͖ d^ ǀ ƌžăƚŝă͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϯϲϯϯϳͬϭϭ͕ ũƶěőğŵğŷƚ žĩ ϯϱ ɖƌŝů ϯϭϭϯ͖ ϳ ^ljŭžƌă ǀ dśğ njğđś zğɖƶďůŝđ͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϯϯϰϭϵͬϭϳ͕ ũƶěőğŵğŷƚ žĩ ϯϯ ežǀğŵďğƌ ϯϭϭϯ͖ ǀ >ŝƚśƶăŷŝă͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϭϯϰϲϵͬϭϲ͕ ũƶěőğŵğŷƚ žĩ ϭϰ &ğďƌƶăƌlj ϯϭϭϯ͖ ^ƚăŷğǀ ǀ ƶůőăƌŝă͘ ĩŷ ϯ͖ y ăŷě z ǀ͘ ƌžăƚŝă͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϱϭϵϯͬϭϵ͕ :ƶěőŵğŷƚ ϯ ežǀğŵďğƌ ϯϭϭϭ͘ ϯθ >ğőăů đăɖăđŝƚlj žĩ ɖğƌɛžŷɛ ǁŝƚś ŝŷƚğůůğđƚƶăů ěŝɛăďŝůŝƚŝğɛ ăŷě ɖğƌɛžŷɛ ǁŝƚś ŵğŷƚăů śğăůƚś ɖƌžďůğŵɛ͕ ĩŷ ϯϲ͘ ϯϵ ^ğğ͕ ĩžƌ ğdžăŵɖůğ͕ ŝŷ ƚśğ đžŷƚğdžƚ žĩ ƚśğ ěŝɛđƶɛɛŝžŷ žŷ ƚśğ zw͕ :žŝŷğě ăɛğɛ ͳϯϯϱͬϭϭ ăŷě ͳϯϯϳͬϭϭ͕ ,< ăŷŵăƌŭ͕ ăđƚŝŷő žŷ ďğśăůĩ žĩ :ğƚƚğ zŝŷő͕ ǀ͘ ăŷɛŭ ăůŵğŷŷljƚƚŝőƚ žůŝőɛğůɛŭăď͕ ăŷě ,< ăŷŵăƌŭ͕ ăđƚŝŷő žŷ ďğśăůĩ žĩ >žŷğ ^ŭžƶďžğ tğƌőğ͕ ǀ͘ ăŷɛŭ ƌďğũěɛőŝǀğƌĩžƌğŷŝŷő͕ ϭϭ ɖƌŝů ϯϭϭϯ͕ ɖăƌăőƌăɖś ϯϵͳϯϯ͘ ϰϭ ƶƌžɖğăŷ žŵŵŝɛɛŝžŷ͕ žŵŵƶŷŝđăƚŝžŷ ĩƌžŵ ƚśğ žŵŵŝɛɛŝžŷ ƚž ƚśğ ƶƌžɖğăŷ wăƌůŝăŵğŷƚ͕ ƚśğ žƶŷđŝů͕ ƚśğ ƶƌžɖğăŷ đžŷžŵŝđ ^žđŝăů žŵŵŝƚƚğğ ăŷě ƚśğ žŵŵŝƚƚğğ žĩ ƚśğ zğőŝžŷɛ͕ ƶƌžɖğăŷ ŝɛăďŝůŝƚlj ^ƚƌăƚğőlj ϯϭϭϭͳϯϭϯϭ͗ zğŷğǁğě žŵŵŝƚŵğŷƚ ƚž ă ăƌƌŝğƌͳ&ƌğğ ƶƌžɖğ͘ ƌƶɛɛğůɛ͕ ϭϱ͘ϭϭ͘ϯϭϭϭ͘ kd;ϯϭϭϭϳ ϲϯϲ ĩŝŷăů͘ wăƌă ϯ͘ϭ͘ϯ ϰϭ ^ğğ ŝɛăďŝůŝƚlj ,ŝőś >ğǀğů ‘ƌžƶɖ ƌğɖžƌƚɛ ĩƌžŵ ϯϭϭθ ăŷě ϯϭϭϵ͘ ϰϯ žƶŷđŝů žĩ ƶƌžɖğ͕ wăƌůŝăŵğŷƚăƌlj ɛɛğŵďůlj͘ đđğɛɛ ƚž ƌŝőśƚɛ ĩžƌ ɖğžɖůğ ǁŝƚś ěŝɛăďŝůŝƚŝğɛ ăŷě ƚśğŝƌ ĩƶůů ăŷě ăđƚŝǀğ ɖăƌƚŝđŝɖăƚŝžŷ ŝŷ ɛžđŝğƚlj͕ zğɛžůƶƚŝžŷ ϭϲϰϯ ;ϯϭϭϵϳ͕ ăěžɖƚğě žŷ ϯϲ :ăŷƶăƌlj ϯϭϭϵ͘ ghflvlrqv lv qrw olplwhg ru vxevwlwxwhg e rwkhuv wkdw phdvxuhv frqfhuqlqj wkhp duh lqglylgxdoo wdloruhg wr wkhlu qhhgv dqg wkdw wkh pd eh vxssruwhg lq wkhlu ghflvlrq pdnlqj e d vxssruw shuvrqµ,w ixuwkhu uhtxluhv wkdw ´shrsoh sodfhg xqghu jxdugldqvkls duh qrw ghsulyhg ri wkhlu ixqgdphqwdo uljkwv qrw ohdvw wkh uljkwv wr >«@ eulqj ohjdo surfhhglqjv >«@ dqg zkhuh wkh qhhg h[whuqdo dvvlvwdqfh vr dv wr h[huflvh wkrvh uljkwv wkdw wkh duh diirughg dssursuldwh vxssruw zlwkrxw wkhlu zlvkhv ru lqwhqwlrqv ehlqj vxshuvhghgµ ,q )heuxdu wkh &rxqflo ri (xursh·v &rpplvvlrqhu iru +xpdq 5ljkwv sxeolvkhg d lvvxh sdshu hqwlwohg ´:kr *hwv wr ‘hflgh”µ rq wkh uljkw wr ohjdo fdsdflw $prqj wkh uhfrpphqgdwlrqv zdv wkdw 6wdwhv vkrxog ´derolvk phfkdqlvpv surylglqj iru ixoo lqfdsdflwdwlrq dqg sohqdu jxdugldqvklsµ hqvxuh wkdw shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv hqmr doo ixqgdphqwdo uljkwv dqg uhylhz mxglfldo surfhgxuhv wkdw doorz iru uhvwulfwlrq ri ohjdo fdsdflw +h dovr uhfrpphqghg wkdw 6wdwhv ghyhors vxssruwhg ghflvlrqpdnlqj vvwhpv dqg ´hvwdeolvk urexvw vdihjxdugvµ wkdw hqvxuh wkh vxssruwv surylghg duh dw wkh vhohfwlrq ri wkh lqglylgxdo +h hpskdvlvhg wkdw ´uhiruplqj fxuuhqw phfkdqlvpv iru ohjdo fdsdflw lv rqh ri wkh prvw vljqlilfdqw kxpdq uljkwv lvvxhv lq (xursh wrgdµ 0ruhryhu wkh &rxqflo ri (xursh ‘lvdelolw 6wudwhj vhwv rxw lqwhu dold wkh iroorzlqj d ´ (txdo uhfrjqlwlrq ehiruh wkh odz (txdo uhfrjqlwlrq ehiruh wkh odz dv ghilqhg dprqj rwkhuv e wkh 81&53’ $uwlfoh uhihuv wr wkh wzr sduwv ri ohjdo fdsdflw wkh fdsdflw wr krog uljkwv dqg gxwlhv dqg wkh fdsdflw wr dfw rq wkhp /hjdo fdsdflw dqg dffhvv wr mxvwlfh duh hvvhqwldo wr uhdo sduwlflsdwlrq lq doo duhdv ri olih dqg ixoo lqfoxvlrq ri shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv lq vrflhw /hjdo fdsdflw lv lq idfw frqqhfwhg wr doo kxpdq uljkwv dqg wkhlu hqmrphqw e 6wdwhv duh uhtxluhg xqghu wkh 81&53’ dv idu dv srvvleoh wr uhsodfh vxevwlwxwhg ghflvlrqpdnlqj zlwk vvwhpv ri vxssruwhg ghflvlrqpdnlqj 3rvvleoh olplwdwlrqv rq ghflvlrqpdnlqj vkrxog eh frqvlghuhg rq dq lqglylgxdo edvlv eh sursruwlrqdo dqg eh uhvwulfwhg wr wkh h[whqw wr zklfk lw lv devroxwho qhfhvvdu /lplwdwlrqv vkrxog qrw wdnh sodfh zkhq ohvv lqwhuihulqj phdqv duh vxiilflhqw lq oljkw ri wkh vlwxdwlrq dqg dffhvvleoh dqg hiihfwlyh ohjdo vdihjxdugv pxvw eh surylghg wr hqvxuh wkdw vxfk phdvxuhv duh qrw dexvhg f &rxqflo ri (xursh erglhv phpehu 6wdwhv dqg rwkhu uhohydqw vwdnhkroghuv vkrxog vhhn wr d 6xssruw phpehu 6wdwhv lq wkhlu hiiruwv wr lpsuryh wkhlu ohjlvodwlrq srolflhv dqg sudfwlfhv zlwk uhjdug wr hqvxulqj ohjdo fdsdflw ri shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv e ,ghqwli froohfw dqg glvvhplqdwh h[lvwlqj jrrg sudfwlfhv rq vxssruwhg ghflvlrqpdnlqj vvwhpv dqg sudfwlfhv wkdw shuvrqv zlwk ϰϯ /ďŝě͕ ɖăƌă͘ ϳ͘ϭ͘ ϰϰ /ďŝě͕ ɖăƌă͘ ϳ͘ϯ͘ ϰϱ dśžŵăɛ ,ăŵŵăƌďğƌő͕͞tśž ‘ğƚɛ ƚž ğđŝěğ͍͕͟ žƶŷđŝů žĩ ƶƌžɖğ͕ 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zkhuh wkh dssrlqwhg ϰϲ^śƚƶŭăƚƶƌžǀ ǀ͘ zƶɛɛŝă͕ ĩŷ ϭ ăŷě /ǀŝŷžǀŝđ ǀ͘ ƌžăƚŝă͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ŷž͘ ϭϯϭϭϲͬϭϯ͕ ũƶěőğŵğŷƚ žĩ ϭθ ^ğɖƚğŵďğƌ ϯϭϭϰ͘ ϰϳ^śƚƶŭăƚƶƌžǀ ǀ͘ zƶɛɛŝă͕ ĩŷ ϭ ăŷě ^ƚăŷğǀ ǀ͘ ƶůőăƌŝă͕ ĩŷ ϯ͘ ϰθ<ăƌğŷ zğŝě͕ ɖƌăđƚŝƚŝžŷğƌ͛ɛ őƶŝěğ ƚž ƚśğ ƶƌžɖğăŷ žŷǀğŷƚŝžŷ žŷ ,ƶŵăŷ zŝőśƚɛ͕ ;dśžŵɛžŷ zğƶƚğƌɛ͕ ϯϭϭϱϳ͕ ɖăőğ θϲϲ͘ ϰϵdŝŭƶůŝđ ǀ͘ ƌžăƚŝă͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϱϯϭϳϲͬϵϵ͕ ũƶěőŵğŷƚ žĩ ϳ &ğďƌƶăƌlj ϯϭϭϯ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă ϱϯ͘ ϱϭƶěőğžŷ ǀ͘ ƚśğ hŷŝƚğě <ŝŷőěžŵ͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϳϱϯϱͬϳϲ͕ ũƶěőŵğŷƚ žĩ ϯϯ kđƚžďğƌ ϭϵθϭ͕ ^ğƌŝğɛ ͘ ež͘ ϰϱ͕ ɖɖ͘ ϭθ ͳϭϵ ăƚ ɖăƌă ϰϭ ăŷě y ăŷě z ǀ͘ ƚśğ eğƚśğƌůăŷěɛ͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ θϵϳθͬθϭ͕ ũƶěőğŵğŷƚ žĩ ϯϲ dăƌđś ϭϵθϱ͘ ϱϭwƌğƚƚlj ǀ͘ h<͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϯϯϰϲͬϭϯ͕ ũƶěőğŵğŷƚ žĩ ϯϵ ɖƌŝů ϯϭϭϯ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă ϲϯ͖ ƶƌőśăƌƚnj ǀ͘ ^ǁŝƚnjğƌůăŷě͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϭϲϯϭϯͬϵϭ͕ žɖŝŷŝžŷ žĩ ƚśğ žŵŵŝɛɛŝžŷ͕ ϯϳ͕ ăƚ ɖăƌă ϰϳ͖ &ƌŝğěů ǀ͘ ƶɛƚƌŝă͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϭϱϯϯϱͬθϵ͕ ũƶěőŵğŷƚ žĩ ϯϭ :ăŷƶăƌlj ϭϵϵϱ͕ ^ğƌŝğɛ ež͘ ϯϭϱͳ͕ žɖŝŷŝžŷ žĩ ƚśğ žŵŵŝɛɛŝžŷ͕ ɖ͘ ϯϭ͕ ɖăƌă ϰϱ͖ ăŷě eŝğŵŝğƚnj ǀ͘ 'ğƌŵăŷlj͕ ɖɖůŝđăƚŝžŷ ež͘ ϭϯϳϭϭͬθθ͕ ũƶěőŵğŷƚ žĩ ϭϲ ğđğŵďğƌ ϭϵϵϯ͘ ϱϯžŷŷžƌɛ ǀ h<͕ 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lq ghflvlrqv wdnhq e grphvwlf frxuwv doo ryhu (xursh )ru h[dpsoh wkh &]hfk &rqvwlwxwlrqdo &rxuw ² dowkrxjk lw kdv qrw hw kdg wkh rssruwxqlw wr uxoh rq wkh xqfrqvwlwxwlrqdolw ri wkh &]hfk jxdugldqvkls vvwhp shu vh ² wrrn qrwh ri wkh hyroylqj wuhqgv lq glvdelolw uljkwv dqg wkh uhtxluhg d kxpdq uljkwv dssurdfk wr glvdelolw lq lwv uhfhqw ghflvlrqv ,q lwv ghflvlrq iurp wkh &rqvwlwxwlrqdo &rxuw hpskdvlvhg wkdw wkh vwduwlqj srlqw vkrxog eh wkh ´sulrulw ri d ixqgdphqwdoo iuhh dxwrqrprxv lqglylgxdo zkrp wkh vwdwh pd qrw suhyhqw iurp sxuvxlqj klv lghd ri kdsslqhvv e iruflqj xsrq klp vwdwh surwhfwlrq zkhuh wkh lqglylgxdo shukdsv zlwk wkh khos ri klv idplo fdq wdnh fduh ri klpvhoiµ 7kh &rxuw vwdwhg wkdw ´olplwlqj ohjdo fdsdflw lv dozdv d vhulrxv lqwhuihuhqfh lq wkh shuvrqdo lqwhjulw ri wkh shuvrq ehlqj olplwhgµ,w qrwhg wkdw ´wkh lqvwlwxwlrq ri uhprydo ri ohjdo fdsdflw zklfk lv dq reylrxv uholf ri wkh rog uhjlph lv frqvwlwxwlrqdoo frqvlghudeo sureohpdwlfµ dqg wkdw ´wkh olplwdwlrq ri ohjdo fdsdflw pxvw dozdv eh frqvlghuhg wkh prvw h[wuhph phdqvµ vr frxuwv pxvw dozdv zhljk ohvv uhvwulfwlyh dowhuqdwlyhv he/d ed/ke^͛ /^/>/dz ^dez^ ϳϭžŷɛƚŝƚƶƚŝžŷăů žƶƌƚ žĩ ƚśğ zğɖƶďůŝđ žĩ ^ůžǀğŷŝă͕ ăɛğ ež͘ hͳ/ͳϯϵϰͬϭϯ͕ ϭϭ :ƶŷğ ϯϭϭϱ͕ ăǀăŝůăďůğ ăƚ śƚƚɖ͗ͬͬžěůžđŝƚǀğ͘ƶɛͳƌɛ͘ɛŝͬěžđƶŵğŷƚɛͬĩϭͬϱθͬƶͳŝͳϯϵϰͳϭϯϯ͘ɖěĩ͘ ϳϯ:ƶěőŵğŷƚɛ žĩ ƚśğ njğđś žŷɛƚŝƚƶƚŝžŷăů žƶƌƚ͕ ăɛğ ež͘ ϯϭϭϵͬϭθͬϭθ ͳ /͘ j^ ϱϱϳͬϭϵ ăŷě ăɛğ ež͘ ϯϭϭϭͬϭϯͬϭϯ ͳ wů͘ j^ ϰϯͬϭϭ͘ /ŷ ƚśğ ĩžƌŵğƌ đăɛğ ƚśğ žŷɛƚŝƚƶƚŝžŷăů žƶƌƚ ăŷŷƶůůğě ƚśğ đžŷɛğđƶƚŝǀğ ěğđŝɛŝžŷɛ žĩ ƚśğ <ůăěŷž ŝɛƚƌŝđƚ žƶƌƚ͕ ƚśğ zğőŝžŷăů žƶƌƚ ŝŷ wƌăőƶğ ăŷě ^ƶɖƌğŵğ žƶƌƚ ěğŷljŝŷő ƚž ƌğŝŷɛƚăƚğ ƚśğ ĩƶůů ůğőăů đăɖăđŝƚlj žĩ ƚśğ đžŵɖůăŝŷăŷƚ͘ /ŷ ƚśğ ůăƚƚğƌ đăɛğ ƚśğ žŷɛƚŝƚƶƚŝžŷăů žƶƌƚ śğůě ƚśăƚ ƚśğ ěžŵğɛƚŝđ ɖƌžǀŝɛŝžŷɛ ɖƌğǀğŷƚŝŷő ɖğžɖůğ ǁśžɛğ ůğőăů đăɖăđŝƚlj śăǀğ ďğğŷ ƌğɛƚƌŝđƚğě ĩƌžŵ ğdžğƌđŝɛŝŷő ƚśğŝƌ ɖƌžđğěƶƌăů đăɖăđŝƚlj ǁŝƚśŝŷ ăěŵŝŷŝɛƚƌăƚŝǀğ đžƶƌƚ ɖƌžđğğěŝŷőɛ ăƌğ ƶŷđžŷɛƚŝƚƶƚŝžŷăů͘ ϳϯ:ƶěőŵğŷƚ žĩ ƚśğ njğđś žŷɛƚŝƚƶƚŝžŷăů žƶƌƚ͕ ăɛğ ež͘ ϯϭϭϵͬϭθͬϭθ ͳ /͘ j^ ϱϱϳͬϭϵ ͕ɖăƌă ϯϰ͕ ăǀăŝůăďůğ ŝŷ ŷőůŝɛś ăƚ 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