1*2 lqirupdwlrq wr wkh 8qlwhg 1dwlrqv &rpplwwhh rq wkh 5ljkwv ri 3huvrqv zlwk ‘lvdelolwlhv )ru frqvlghudwlrq zkhq frpslolqj wkh /lvw ri ,vvxhv rq wkh frpelqhg vhfrqg dqg wklug shulrglf uhsruwv ri wkh 5(38%/,& 2) 02/’29$ xqghu wkh &rqyhqwlrq rq wkh 5ljkwv ri 3huvrqv zlwk ‘lvdelolwlhv bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb 6xeplwwhg e 0rogrydq ,qvwlwxwh iru +xpdq 5ljkwv ,’20 9dolglw )rxqgdwlrq 0hqwdo ‘lvdelolw $gyrfdf &hqwuh -dqxdu , ,qwurgxfwlrq 7klv vxeplvvlrq surylghv dq rxwolqh ri lvvxhv ri frqfhuq zlwk uhjdug wr wkh lpsohphqwdwlrq e wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd ri lwv reoljdwlrqv xqghu wkh &rqyhqwlrq rq wkh 5ljkwv ri 3huvrqv zlwk ‘lvdelolwlhv khuhlqdiwhu ³wkh &rqyhqwlrq´ zlwk sduwlfxodu irfxv rq wkh hqmrphqw ri wkh uljkwv ri shuvrqv zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv 7kh vxeplvvlrq kdv ehhq zulwwhq e wkh 0rogrydq ,qvwlwxwh iru +xpdq 5ljkwv dqg wkh 9dolglw )rxqgdwlrq ± 0hqwdo ‘lvdelolw $gyrfdf &hqwuh 7kh 0rogrydq ,qvwlwxwh iru +xpdq 5ljkwv ,’20 lv d qrqjryhuqphqwdo rujdqlvdwlrq iruphg e kxpdq uljkwv h[shuwv zlwk wkh dlp wr frqwulexwh wr udlvlqj dzduhqhvv dqg surprwlqj dqg surwhfwlqj uljkwv dqg olehuwlhv jxdudqwhhg e qdwlrqdo dqg lqwhuqdwlrqdo ohjdo iudphzrunv ,’20 hqjdjhv lq wkh iroorzlqj duhdv ri dfwlylw ghihqglqj dqg surprwlqj wkh uljkwv ri shuvrqv zlwk phqwdo glvdelolwlhv iurp svfkldwulf lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg 7hpsrudu 3odfhphqw &hqwuhv iru 3huvrqv zlwk ‘lvdelolwlhv uhvshfwlqj wkh uljkwv ri shuvrqv lq ghwhqwlrq suhwuldo ghwhqwlrq lqvwlwxwlrqv srolfh lqvshfwrudwhv srolfh lvrodwruv wkh uljkw wr khdowk olwljdwlqj fdvhv ri pdosudfwlfh dqg ghihqglqj sdwlhqwv¶ uljkwv vwuhqjwkhqlqj wkh fdsdflwlhv ri ,’20 dqg hqvxulqj lwv ilqdqfldo vxvwdlqdelolw )ru pruh lqirupdwlrq sohdvh ylvlw kwwsvlgrppgkrph 7kh 9dolglw )rxqgdwlrq ± 0hqwdo ‘lvdelolw $gyrfdf &hqwuh 9dolglw lv dq lqwhuqdwlrqdo qrqjryhuqphqwdo kxpdq uljkwv rujdqlvdwlrq zklfk xvhv ohjdo vwudwhjlhv wr surprwh surwhfw dqg ghihqg wkh kxpdq uljkwv ri dgxowv dqg fkloguhq zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv 9dolglw¶v ylvlrq lv d zruog ri htxdolw zkhuh hprwlrqdo phqwdo dqg ohduqlqj gliihuhqfhv duh ydoxhg htxdoo zkhuh wkh lqkhuhqw dxwrqrp dqg gljqlw ri hdfk shuvrq duh ixoo uhvshfwhg dqg zkhuh kxpdq uljkwv duh uhdolvhg iru doo shuvrqv zlwkrxw glvfulplqdwlrq 9dolglw krogv sduwlflsdwru vwdwxv dw wkh &rxqflo ri (xursh dqg vshfldo frqvxowdwlyh vwdwxv dw (&262& )ru pruh lqirupdwlrq sohdvh ylvlw zzzydolglwqjr ,, 6lwxdwlrqv ri ulvn dqg kxpdqlwduldq hphujhqflhv $uwlfoh 2q )heuxdu wkh *ryhuqphqw ri wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd ghfoduhg d vwdwh ri hphujhqf lq wkh frxqwu iroorzlqj wkh rxweuhdn ri zdu lq qhljkerxulqj 8nudlqh 7kh 0rogrydq dxwkrulwlhv lqwurgxfhg d vshfldo uhjlph iru hqwu dqg h[lw wr wkh frxqwu dqg vshfldo phdvxuhv iru wkh surwhfwlrq ri uhixjhhv dv zhoo dv iru wkh surwhfwlrq ri wkh frxqwu¶v srsxodwlrq dqg lqvwlwxwlrqv 7kh jryhuqphqw ghfoduhg lwv uhdglqhvv wr uhfhlyh uhixjhhv iurp 8nudlqh dqg kdv ehhq frrshudwlqj zlwk 81 djhqflhv dv zhoo dv rwkhu orfdo dqg lqwhuqdwlrqdo rujdqlvdwlrqv wr uhvsrqg wr wkh uhixjhh fulvlv ,q vslwh ri wklv zh qrwh wkdw doprvw wzr hduv vlqfh wkh lqfhswlrq ri wkh fulvlv uhixjhhv zlwk glvdelolwlhv vwloo idfh vljqlilfdqw sureohpv diihfwlqj wkhlu vhfxulw dqg zhooehlqj udqjlqj iurp d odfn ri orqjwhup sodqqlqj iru lqwhjudwlrq wr wkh devhqfh ri dghtxdwh phdvxuhv wr suhyhqw glvfulplqdwlrq dqg vhjuhjdwlrq $ odujh sduw ri wkh uhixjhhv fkrvh wr olyh zlwk 0rogrydq idplolhv ru ehqhilwhg iurp iuhh dffrpprgdwlrq iurp 0rogrydq qdwlrqdov ru fkrvh wr sulydwho uhqw krxvhvdsduwphqwvurrpv $w wkh vdph wlph wkh 0lqlvwu ri /deru dqg 6rfldo 3urwhfwlrq 0/63 mrlqwo zlwk wkh 1dwlrqdo 6rfldo $vvlvwdqfh $jhqf 16$$ olfhqvhg 3odfhphqw &hqwuhv iru 5hixjhhv fxuuhqwo durxqg sodfhphqw fhqwuhv duh rshudwlqj $erxw shrsoh kdyh ehhq dffrpprgdwhg lq wkhvh &hqwuhv ri zklfk derxw duh shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv ru wkrvh fdwhjrulvhg dv kdylqj µvshfldo qhhgv¶ 7kh 3odfhphqw &hqwuhv duh prvwo irfxvhg rq krxvlqj dqg ihhglqj shrsoh zlwkrxw riihulqj wkhp vxssruw vhuylfhv lqfoxglqj svfkrvrfldo vxssruw ,q uhodwlrq wr wkhvh &hqwuhv vxeplwwlqj rujdqlvdwlrqv srlqw rxw wkdw wkh &53’ &rpplwwhh¶v *xlgholqhv rq ghlqvwlwxwlrqdolvdwlrq lqfoxglqj lq hphujhqflhv kljkoljkwv wkh ‘, *xlgholqhv wkdw ³shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv pd eh ryhuuhsuhvhqwhg lq « vhjuhjdwhg vhwwlqjv lq uhixjhh fdpsv dqg pljudqw vkhowhuv«´ )xuwkhu wkh ‘, *xlgholqhv fdoov rq 6wdwhv sduwlhv wr ³hqvxuh wkdw uhixjhhv zlwk glvdelolwlhv kdyh dffhvv wr vrfldo dvvlvwdqfh pdlqvwuhdp vhuylfhv dqg uhdvrqdeoh dffrpprgdwlrq dv uhtxluhg´ /rfdo 1*2 uhsruwv kljkoljkw wkh odfn ri dffhvvleoh wudqvsruw iru shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv hqwhulqj wkh frxqwu dw wkh erughufurvvlqj zlwk 8nudlqh 7kh dxwkrulwlhv gr qrw kdyh d vwdqgdug surfhgxuh iru prqlwrulqj wkh vlwxdwlrq ri uhixjhhv zlwk glvdelolwlhv vwdlqj lq wkh sulydwh vhfwru zlwk idplolhv ru dw xqdxwkrul]hg ru xqriilfldo sodfhphqw fhqwuhv /rfdo dgplqlvwudwlrqv kdyh surylghg iru vrph ghjuhh ri gdwd uhfruglqj wkurxjk vrfldo zrunhuv lqfoxglqj lq uxudo duhdv exw vxfk hiiruwv duh vsrudglf 7khvh zhuh sduwlfxoduo uhodwhg wr wkh surylvlrq ri kxpdqlwduldq dlg dqg rqhrii sdphqwv wr krvw idplolhv exw gr qrw uhiohfw wkh qhhgv ri shuvrqv frqfhuqhg ,q d vwdwhphqw pdgh lq )heuxdu wkh 6wdwh 6hfuhwdu ri wkh 0/63 vdlg wkdw ghdolqj zlwk wkh zdyh ri uhixjhhv zdv d pdmru fkdoohqjh iru dxwkrulwlhv dv wkhuh zdv d odfn ri fdsdflw dqg nqrzohgjh rq krz wr lqwhuyhqh lq wkhvh vlwxdwlrqv d vlwxdwlrq zklfk dovr lqyroyhg d vljqlilfdqw qxpehu ri uhixjhhv zlwk glvdelolwlhv $ffruglqj wr vrph hvwlpdwhv e 81+&50rogryd durxqg ri uhixjhhv lq 0rogryd duh shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv dqg ri uhixjhh idplolhv kdyh dw ohdvw rqh phpehu zlwk µvshfldo qhhgv¶ 6xeplwwlqj rujdqlvdwlrqv duh ri wkh rslqlrq wkdw ixuwkhu gdwd froohfwlrq lv qhhghg wr kwwsvzzzdqdvpgzsfrqwhqwxsordgv5($&+b0’$b)dfwvkhhwb5$&0rqwko1hhgv0rqlwrulqjbb52sgi &53’ &rpplwwhh *xlgholqhv rq ghlqvwlwxwlrqdolvdwlrq lqfoxglqj lq hphujhqflhv &53’& sdud ,elg kwwsvfgsgpguhixjldwllxfudlqhqlfxgl]delolwdwlqhfhvlwdpdlpxowvsulmlqglqsduwhddxwrulwdwloruvlrsgxuloruglqprogryd ,elg kwwsvzzzxqkfurujpgkwpo dvvhvv wkh qhhgv dqg suhihuhqfhv ri uhixjhhv zlwk glvdelolwlhv 4xdolwdwlyh dqg xswrgdwh vwdwlvwlfdo gdwd fdq khos wr surylgh uhixjhhv zlwk glvdelolwlhv zlwk ehwwhu vxssruw 7klv vkrxog eh grqh wkurxjk dq lqfoxvlyh dssurdfk wr uhvsrqglqj wr vlwxdwlrqv ri ulvn dqg kxpdqlwduldq hphujhqflhv dqg wkdw lq wxuq uhtxluhv pdlqvwuhdplqj d glvdelolw shuvshfwlyh dfurvv doo uhohydqw ohjlvodwlrq sodqv dqg srolflhv dqg wkurxjkrxw wkh 0rogrydq *ryhuqphqw¶v frruglqdwlrq zlwk lqwhuqdwlrqdo kxpdqlwduldq dvvlvwdqfh djhqflhv 7dnlqj lqwr dffrxqw wkh idfw wkdw wkh kdyh ohiw wkhlu krphodqg pdq uhixjhhv zkr duh prvwo zrphq roghu shrsoh fkloguhq dqg shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv dovr idfh svfkrvrfldo fkdoohqjhv zkhq lqwhjudwlqj lqwr wkh 0rogrydq vrflhw 7kh qxpehu ri uhixjhhv zkr kdyh ghyhorshg phqwdo khdowk sureohpv gxh wr wkh duphg frqiolfw lv qrw hw hvwlpdwhg +rzhyhu dffruglqj wr dq 2+&+5 0rqlwrulqj )dfwvkhhw uhjduglqj wkh vlwxdwlrq ri 8nudlqldq uhixjhhv lq 0rogryd iurp 6hswhpehu ri uhvsrqghqwv uhsruwhg h[shulhqflqj ihholqjv ri dq[lhw zruu dqg qhuyrxvqhvv hlwkhu gdlo ru zhhno ri uhvsrqghqwv uhsruwhg h[shulhqflqj kljk ohyhov ri wkhvh ihholqjv dqg ri shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv uhsruwhg kdylqj vxfk ihholqjv $prqj lqwhuylhzhhv zrphq uhsruwhg h[shulhqflqj dq[lhw dqg qhuyrxvqhvv wlphv pruh iuhtxhqwo wkdq phq 6xfk ihholqjv duh dovr suhydohqw dprqj shrsoh djhg dqg ryhu $w wkh vdph wlph uhixjhhv iurp 8nudlqh zkr zhuh lqwhuylhzhg uhsruwhg ihholqj ghsuhvvhg rq d gdlo dqg zhhno edvlv zkloh uhvsrqghqwv ghvfulehg vxfk ihholqjv dv kdsshqlqj ³d orw´ 8nudlqldq uhixjhhv zlwk glvdelolwlhv lq 0rogryd hqfrxqwhu ydulrxv eduulhuv lq dffhvvlqj phqwdo khdowk vhuylfhv lqfoxglqj svfkrorjlfdo vxssruw exw dovr rwkhu vrfldo vhuylfhv dffrpprgdwhg wr wkhlu qhhgv vxfk dv uhkdelolwdwlrq $ffruglqj wr wkh 2+&+5 0rqlwrulqj )dfwvkhhwv derxw lq uhixjhhv iurp 8nudlqh dqg zkr vdlg wkh kdg vhulrxv phglfdo frqglwlrqv uhsruwhg h[shulhqflqj fkdoohqjhv lq dffhvvlqj khdowk vhuylfhv lq 0rogryd 7khvh qhhgv zhuh sduwlfxoduo kljk dprqj shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv 0rvw uhvsrqghqwv h[suhvvhg d qhhg iru juhdwhu dffhvv wr sulpdu khdowkfduh iroorzhg e vhfrqgdu khdowkfduh dqg phqwlrqhg wkh qhhg iru lpsuryhg dffhvv wr hphujhqf khdowkfduh 6xjjhvwhg txhvwlrqv wr wkh *ryhuqphqw ri wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd :kdw vwhsv kdyh ehhq pdgh wr lqfoxgh d glvdelolw shuvshfwlyh lq doo ohjlvodwlrq dqg sodqv uhodwlqj wr vlwxdwlrqv ri ulvn dqg kxpdqlwduldq hphujhqflhv lqfoxglqj lq wkh frxqwu¶v frrshudwlrq zlwk kxpdqlwduldq djhqflhv” :kdw vwhsv kdyh ehhq wdnhq wr surylgh uhixjhhv zlwk glvdelolwlhv zlwk dffhvv wr vrfldo dvvlvwdqfh pdlqvwuhdp vhuylfhv dqg uhdvrqdeoh dffrpprgdwlrq dv uhtxluhg” :kdw vwhsv duh ehlqj wdnhq wr suhyhqw dqg vwrs wkh sodfhphqw ri uhixjhhv zlwk glvdelolwlhv lq lqvwlwxwlrqdo vhwwlqjv lqfoxglqj 3odfhphqw &hqwuhv iru 5hixjhhv” kwwsvgdwdxqkfurujhqgrfxphqwvghwdlov ,elg :kdw phdvxuhv kdyh ehhq wdnhq lq olqh zlwk wkh 6hqgdl )udphzrun iru ‘lvdvwhu 5lvn 5hgxfwlrq dqg zlwk uhihuhqfh wr wkh uhfrpphqgdwlrq vshflilhg lq sdud ri wkh &53’&0’$&2” :kdw vwhsv kdyh ehhq pdgh wr surylgh uhixjhhv zlwk glvdelolwlhv iurp 8nudlqh zlwk dydlodeoh dffhvvleoh dqg diirugdeoh khdowkfduh vhuylfhv” :kdw nlqg ri vrfldo dqg khdowk vhuylfhv duh lq sodfh wr doohyldwh dqg suhyhqw kljk udwhv ri dq[lhw dqg ghsuhvvlrq dprqj uhixjhhv iohhlqj 8nudlqh” ,,, (txdo uhfrjqlwlrq ehiruh wkh odz $uwlfoh ,q wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd fduulhg rxw h[whqvlyh uhirupv wr dgmxvw lwv ohjlvodwlrq lq dffrugdqfh zlwk $uwlfoh ri wkh 81&53’ $phqgphqwv zhuh pdgh wr wkh &lylo &rgh 1r wkh &rgh ri &lylo 3urfhgxuh 1r wkh )dplo &rgh 1r wkh (qirufhphqw &rgh &rgxo gh ([hfxwduh 1r wkh /dz rq 0hqwdo +hdowk 1r dqg rwkhu uhohydqw ohjlvodwlyh dfwv )xuwkhupruh dv sduw ri wkh vdph sdfndjh ri uhirup dqg ehjlqqlqj lq doo lqglylgxdov suhylrxvo ghsulyhg ri ohjdo fdsdflw zhuh uhfrjqlvhg e odz dv kdylqj ixoo ohjdo fdsdflw 7kh uhirup dlphg wr hvwdeolvk phfkdqlvpv iru vxssruwhg ghflvlrqpdnlqj wkurxjk wzr wshv ri phdvxuhv frqwudfwxdo µh[wudmxglfldo¶ phdvxuhv dqg mxglfldo surwhfwlrq phdvxuhv :kloh frqwudfwxdo phdvxuhv vxfk dv wkh dvvlvwdqfh frqwudfw $uwlfohv ri wkh &lylo &rgh dqg wkh ixwxuh surwhfwlrq pdqgdwh $uwlfohv zhuh qryho wr wkh qdwlrqdo ohjdo vvwhp mxglfldo surwhfwlrq phdvxuhv vxfk dv ixoo ru sduwldo jxdugldqvkls frqwlqxhg wr uhsolfdwh wkh rog phdvxuhv $ffruglqj wr wkh odz wkh odwwhu vkrxog rqo eh xvhg dv d odvw uhvruw zkhq rwkhu phdvxuhv duh ghhphg lqhiihfwlyh 7kxv hyhq wkrxjk wkh lqvwlwxwlrq ri ohjdo lqfdsdflw zdv irupdoo derolvkhg e odz wkh ohjlvodwru uhwdlqhg jxdugldqvkls dv d phdvxuh ri mxglfldo surwhfwlrq doorzlqj rqfh djdlq iru d ohjdo phfkdqlvp wkdw frpsohwho uhsodfhv wkh ghflvlrqv ri d shuvrq zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo rudqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv zlwk wkdw ri d jxdugldq $ffruglqj wr shuvrqv frqfhuqhg dqg h[shulhqfhv ri ,’20 mxglfldo phdvxuhv vxfk dv jxdugldqvkls duh vwloo zlgho xvhg lq 0rogryd dqg wkh duh frqvlghuhg wkh ghidxow udwkhu wkdq d odvw uhvruw )ru h[dpsoh ,’20 fkdoohqjhg d ghflvlrq lq wkh frxuw ri iluvw lqvwdqfh wr dsso jxdugldqvkls dv d mxglfldo surwhfwlrq phdvxuh wr d shuvrq iru whq hduv edvhg rq d iruhqvlf svfkldwulf rslqlrq wkdw zdv surylghg e wkuhh svfkldwulf h[shuwv 7kh &klvlqdx &rxuw ri $sshdo ryhuwxuqhg wkh iluvw lqvwdqfh frxuw ghflvlrq diwhu frqvlghulqj wkh rslqlrq ri d svfkldwulf vshfldolvw wkh dsshdo zdv vxevhtxhqwo xskhog e wkh 6xsuhph &rxuw ri -xvwlfh ri wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd 6xeplwwlqj rujdqlvdwlrqv xqghuolqh wkdw ilyh vlqfh lpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkh uhirupv qr lpsdfw dvvhvvphqw kdv ehhq fduulhg rxw hydoxdwh wkh uhvxowv ri wkh ohjlvodwlyh dgmxvwphqwv wr $uwlfoh ri wkh 81&53’ ³7kh &rpplwwhh uhfrpphqgv wkdw wkh 6wdwh sduw lqfoxgh d glvdelolw shuvshfwlyh lq doo ohjlvodwlrq dqg sodqv uhodwlqj wr vlwxdwlrqv ri ulvn dqg kxpdqlwduldq hphujhqflhv dqg wkdw lw dgrsw phdvxuhv lq olqh zlwk wkh 6hqgdl )udphzrun iru ‘lvdvwhu 5lvn 5hgxfwlrq ´ kwwsvuhylvwdxqpgghfl]lhlvwrulf&shqwuxmxvwl&%ldglqprogrydxqw&$q&ufxgl]delolw&&%lsvlkrvrfldoh&lduhgre&$qglwfhhfd kwwsvzzzidfherrnfrpfxvhqvpgylghrv”bbvrbb fkdqqhobwde bbuybb doobylghrvbfdug )hhgedfn iurp 9, dqg 9( wzr zrphq zlwk svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv zkrvh ohjdo fdsdflw zdv uhvwruhg lq 0rogrydq &rxuwv zlwk ohjdo dvvlvwdqfh ri ,’20 odzhuv 9, ³«pdq wklqjv kdyh fkdqjhg dv d uhvxow ri wkh jxdugldqvkls frxuw surfhvv , vkrxog phqwlrq wkdw wkhuh duh sureohpv zlwk p prwkhu qrz zkr kdg ehhq judqwhg jxdugldqvkls ri ph e wkh frxuw exw wkh grfwruv gldjqrvhg khu dv kdylqj ghphqwld « , dp yhu kdss dqg vdwlvilhg wkdw wkh dqqxoohg wkh jxdugldqvkls dqg , dp judwhixo wr ,’20 odzhuv zkr khoshg ph ehfdxvh , dp fdsdeoh dqg pdqdjh pvhoi , dp d vdohvzrpdq , frqvlghu wkdw wkh iluvw mxgjh zkr hvwdeolvkhg p jxdugldqvkls lq wkh frxuw ri iluvw lqvwdqfh zdv qrw frpshwhqw dqg surihvvlrqdo hqrxjk ehfdxvh , fdq zrun , fdq vxssruw pvhoi dqg , fdq pdqdjh p exgjhw dqg doo dvshfwv ri p olih rq p rzq , jrw rxw ri wkh ylflrxv flufoh lq zklfk wkh dpexodqfh dqg wkh srolfh zhuh riwhq fdoohg dw p prwkhuv uhtxhvw dqg wkhq , zdv irufleo dgplwwhg wr d svfkldwulf krvslwdo iurp zkhuh , frxog qrw jhw rxw rq p rzq dqg rqo diwhu , zdv uhihuuhg wr ,’20 zdv wklv sureohp vroyhg´ 9( , dp jodg wkdw lq wkh jxdugldqvkls zdv whuplqdwhg dqg , zdv ghfoduhg fdsdeoh dqg p ohjdo fdsdflw zdv uhvwruhg dqg , zdv deoh wr iuhho h[huflvh doo p uljkwv dv d kxpdq ehlqj +rzhyhu , kdg sureohpv zlwk pdlqwdlqlqj pvhoi dqg zlwk p gdxjkwhu zkr zdqwhg wr sxw ph xqghu jxdugldqvkls dqg , zdv ghfoduhg lqfdsdeoh dw khu uhtxhvw %xw qrz , fdq vd wkdw , kdyh uhhvwdeolvkhg uhodwlrqv zlwk p gdxjkwhu zkr wdnhv fduh ri ph 5hjduglqj vrfldo vhuylfhv lq wkh frppxqlw , fdq qrwh wkdw , zdv riwhq uhixvhg khos rq wkh jurxqgv wkdw , kdyh d gdxjkwhu dqg , kdyh d krph exw qr rqh wrrn lqwr dffrxqw wkdw dw wkdw wlph , zdv lq frqiolfw zlwk p gdxjkwhu dqg , kdg qrzkhuh wr olyh $iwhu wkh frxuw surfhhglqjv wr uhvwruh p ohjdo fdsdflw shrsoh dqg rujdqlvdwlrqv vwduwhg frppxqlfdwlqj zlwk ph dqg khoslqj ph dqg , fdq vd wkdw wkh wuldo lq zklfk , zdv ghihqghg e wkh odzhu $oh[dqgux &hedqdю jdyh ph wkh rssruwxqlw wr dvvhuw pvhoi dqg ixoo h[huflvh doo p uljkwv´ 6xjjhvwhg txhvwlrqv wr wkh *ryhuqphqw ri wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd :kdw sodqv kdyh ehhq dgrswhg dqg vwhsv kdyh ehhq wdnhq wr hqvxuh wkdw doo wshv ri jxdugldqvkls phdvxuhv duh derolvkhg lqfoxglqj µmxglfldo surwhfwlrq phdvxuhv¶ lqfoxglqj ixoo ru sduwldo jxdugldqvkls” :kdw sodqv kdyh ehhq dgrswhg dqg vwhsv kdyh ehhq wdnhq wr hqvxuh wkdw doo shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv fdq dffhvv vxssruw zkhq h[huflvlqj wkhlu ohjdo fdsdflw” 3urylgh vwdwlvwlfv rq wkh qxpehu ri frqwudfwxdo h[wudmxglfldo dqg mxglfldo surwhfwlrq phdvxuhv wdnhq vlqfh wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri wkh dphqgphqwv wr wkh ohjdo fdsdflw ohjlvodwlrq 3urylgh vwdwlvwlfv rq wkh qxpehu ri fdvhv zkhuh d jxdugldqvkls surfhgxuh zdv lqlwldwhg exw wkh shuvrq frqfhuqhg zdv qrw sodfhg xqghu wklv phdvxuh ,9 $ffhvv wr mxvwlfh $uwlfoh 3huvrqv zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv hvshfldoo wkrvh sodfhgolylqj lq svfkldwulf dqg uhvlghqwldo lqvwlwxwlrqv duh frqvlghuhg e uhvsrqghqwv wr d qdwlrqzlgh vxuyh rq kxpdq uljkwv dv rqh ri wkh jurxsv prvw diihfwhg e kxpdq uljkwv ylrodwlrqv dqg vrfldo pdujlqdol]dwlrq wkhuhe uhtxlulqj wkh juhdwhvw dwwhqwlrq iurp wkh shuvshfwlyh ri kxpdq uljkwv surwhfwlrq ,uuhvshfwlyh ri zkhwkhu wkh duh ylfwlpv ri zlwqhvvhv wr ru doohjhg shushwudwruv ri fulph shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv kdyh vljqlilfdqw gliilfxowlhv lq dffhvvlqj mxvwlfh dqg hqjdjlqj zlwk mxvwlfh dfwruv lqfoxglqj lq wkhlu lqwhudfwlrqv zlwk srolfh riilfhuv odzhuv survhfxwlrq dxwkrulwlhv dqg mxglfldo riilfhuv 3huvrqv xqghu mxglfldo phdvxuhv ri surwhfwlrq vxfk dv jxdugldqvkls ulvn idflqj h[foxvlrq iurp sduwlflsdwlrq lq mxvwlfh surfhvvhv hvshfldoo lq fulplqdo surfhgxuhv gxh wr ohjdo dqg sudfwlfdo eduulhuv ‘hvslwh wkh &53’ &rpplwwhh¶v uhfrpphqgdwlrqv wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd kdv qrw uhylhzhg lwv ohjlvodwlrq lqfoxglqj dgplqlvwudwlyh flylo dqg fulplqdo ohjlvodwlrq wr h[solflwo lqfoxgh dq reoljdwlrq wr hqvxuh surfhgxudo dffrpprgdwlrqv lq doo mxglfldo surfhhglqjv 1dwlrqdo ohjlvodwlrq grhv qrw frqwdlq d ohjdo ghilqlwlrq ri wkh whup surfhgxudo dffrpprgdwlrqv 0rogrydq fulplqdo mxvwlfh ohjlvodwlrq frqwlqxhv wr doorz iru wkh h[foxvlrq ri shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv dv ghihqgdqwv iurp mxglfldo surfhhglqjv edvhg rq wkh ³lqvdqlw ghihqfh´ ru ilqglqjv ri luuhvsrqvlelolw iru wkhlu dfwlrqv olqnhg wr ³hslvrglf phqwdo looqhvv´ ru ³shuvlvwhqw phqwdo frqglwlrq´ irxqg dw wkh wlph ri wkh fulplqdo dfw $v d uhvxow dffxvhg shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv duh ghqlhg wkh uljkw wr eh khdug lq shuvrq wr sduwlflsdwh lq dgyhuvduldo surfhhglqjv wr whvwli ru wr uhtxhvw wkh uhfxvdo ri wkh survhfxwlrq mxgjh h[shuw lqwhusuhwhu wudqvodwru ru frxuw fohun 6xfk olplwdwlrqv xqghuplqh wkh sulqflsohv ri htxdolw ri dupv dqg qrqglvfulplqdwlrq suhyhqwlqj shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv iurp dffhvvlqj mxvwlfh rq dq htxdo edvlv zlwk rwkhuv $v wkh ilqdo rxwfrph wkhvh shuvrqv duh vxemhfwhg wr vhfxulw phdvxuhv vxfk dv ghsulydwlrq ri olehuw dqg irufhg phglfdo wuhdwphqw riwhq iru lqghilqlwh shulrgv ri wlph dqg wkh duh ghsulyhg ri fruh surfhgxudo vdihjxdugv iru ghihqgdqwv xqghuplqlqj wkhlu uljkw wr d idlu wuldo ,w lv lpsruwdqw wr qrwh wkdw shrsoh zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv zkr vhuyh dv ylfwlpv ru zlwqhvvhv lq fulplqdo surfhhglqjv idfh vlplodu eduulhuv 7kh fulplqdo mxvwlfh vvwhp lq wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd lqfoxghv deohlvw frpsrqhqwv wkdw xqghuplqh htxdolw ehiruh wkh odz lq gluhfw frqwudglfwlrq zlwk lqwhuqdwlrqdo odz dqg vwdqgdugv )ru h[dpsoh $uwlfoh ri wkh &rgh ri &ulplqdo 3urfhgxuh surylghv wkdw wkh khdulqj ri d zlwqhvv ³vxiihulqj iurp d phqwdo ru rwkhu vhulrxv looqhvv´ vkdoo eh frqgxfwhg zlwk wkh frqvhqw ri wkh grfwru dqg lq klv suhvhqfh 7klv lv gxh wr grxewv derxw wkh fuhglelolw ri wkhlu vwdwhphqwv d odfn ri surfhgxudo dffrpprgdwlrqv dqg wudlqhg vwdii doo ri zklfk 2+&+5 81’3 81)3$ ³3hufhswlrqv ri +xpdq 5ljkwv lq wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd´ s dffhvvleoh khuh kwwsvzzzxqgsrujvlwhvjilohv]vnjnhilohvpljudwlrqpg+xpdq5ljkwv3hufhswlrqv6wxg(1*sgi $iwhu wkh uhirup ri wkh &lylo &rgh dqg lq wkh devhqfh ri vhfrqgdu ohjlvodwlrq dqg phfkdqlvpv wkdw zrxog ghyhors dowhuqdwlyh phdvxuhv mxglfldo phdvxuhv ri surwhfwlrq zklfk uho rq olplwlqj ru ghsulylqj ohjdo fdsdflw duh vwloo suhgrplqdqw lq 0rogryd 6hh pruh ghwdlov rq wkdw lq wkh ³(ydoxdwlrq ri wkh qdwlrqdo ohjlvodwlrq dqg srolflhv uhjduglqj dffhvv wr mxvwlfh´ s kwwsvfgsgpgzsfrqwhqwxsordgv6wxglxb&’3’bbdffhvmxvwlwlh3’bsgi kwwsvfgsgpgzsfrqwhqwxsordgv6wxglxb&’3’bbdffhvmxvwlwlh3’bsgi s kwwsvfgsgpgzsfrqwhqwxsordgv6wxglxb&’3’bbdffhvmxvwlwlh3’bsgi uhsuhvhqw vvwhplf eduulhuv wr wkrurxjko lqyhvwljdwlqj fdvhv lqyroylqj ylrodwlrqv ri wklv jurxs¶v uljkwv suhyhqwlqj wkh wuxwk iurp ehlqj glvfryhuhg dqg phdqlqjixo uhsdudwlrqv ehlqj surylghg &rpsodlqwv e shuvrqv zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv duh uduho surshuo lqyhvwljdwhg e survhfxwruv gxh wr dvvxpswlrqv ri xquholdelolw dqg shufhswlrqv wkdw wkhlu whvwlprqlhv dqg doohjdwlrqv duh olnho wr eh lqdffxudwh 3huvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv vlwxdwlrqv dqg flufxpvwdqfhv fdq eh gliilfxow iru mxvwlfh dfwruv lqfoxglqj mxgjhv wr xqghuvwdqg dqg uhvsrqg wr ehfdxvh prvw mxvwlfh dfwruv kdyh yhu olwwoh nqrzohgjh derxw glvdelolw glvdelolw uljkwv dqg krz wkh vkrxog hqjdjh zlwk shrsoh zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv 7kh 0rogrydq 2pexgvpdq kljkoljkwhg lq d vwxg uhjduglqj wruwxuh suhyhqwlrq wkdw ³wkh uhfhqw ghdwk ri d rxqj pdq ghwdlqhg lq wkh &klvlqdx srolfh whpsrudu ghwhqwlrq idflolw lv hylghqfh wkdw wkh srolfh dxwkrulwlhv kdyh qrw ohduqhg doo wkh ohvvrqv iurp wkh ghdwk ri $qguhl %udjxwd zkloh lq srolfh fxvwrg lq 6hswhpehu dv zhoo dv iurp wkh fdvh zkhq vshfldo lqwhuyhqwlrq euljdgh )xojhu xvhg vshfldo phdqv dqg irufh djdlqvw wkh sdwlhqwv ri wkh &klvlqdx 3vfkldwulf +rvslwdo´ ,w fdq eh frqfoxghg wkdw srolfh riilfhuv dqg rwkhuv lqyroyhg lq duuhvwv dqg lqyhvwljdwlrqv ri fulplqdo riihqfhv duh qrw nqrzohgjhdeoh derxw wkh uljkwv ri shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv dqg wkh gr qrw nqrz krz wr vxssruw ru dffrpprgdwh shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv gxulqj duuhvw ru zkloh xqghu fulplqdo lqyhvwljdwlrq 1hlwkhu wkh 0lqlvwu ri ,qwhulru wkh 1dwlrqdo ,qvwlwxwh iru -xvwlfh qru wkh 1dwlrqdo &rxqflo iru *xdudqwhhg /hjdo $lg 1&*/$ dq hqwlw uhvsrqvleoh iru wkh frruglqdwlrq ri iuhh ohjdo dlg kdyh wudlqlqj surjudpphv ru sodqv ghglfdwhg wr glvdelolw uljkwv 6rph surylvlrqv ri wkh &lylo dqg &ulplqdo 3urfhgxudo &rghv doorz shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv wr sduwlflsdwh lq khdulqjv yld ylghrfrqihuhqfh +rzhyhu wkh surylvlrqv ri $uwlfoh ri wkh &rgh ri &lylo 3urfhgxuh pdnh d fohdu glvwlqfwlrq wkdw sduwlflsdwlrq lq wkh h[dplqdwlrq ri flylo fdvhv e ylghrfrqihuhqfh lv uhfrjqlvhg rqo iru wkrvh zlwk orfrprwru glvdelolwlhv 7khvh surylvlrqv zhuh irxqg glvfulplqdwru e wkh 1dwlrqdo (txdolw %rg &rxqflo iru wkh 3uhyhqwlrq dqg (olplqdwlrq ri ‘lvfulplqdwlrq dqg wkh (qvxulqj ri (txdolw ,q fulplqdo surfhhglqjv $uwlfoh ri wkh &rgh ri &ulplqdo 3urfhhglqjv khdulqjv wkurxjk ylghrfrqihuhqfh duh uhfrjqlvhg rqo iru frqylfwhg shuvrqv lq ghwhqwlrq zkhuh pdwwhuv uhodwh wr wkh h[hfxwlrq ri wkh vhqwhqfh 7kxv wkh uljkw wr sduwlflsdwh lq wkh fulplqdo surfhvv wkurxjk ylghrfrqihuhqflqj lv qrw surylghg iru rwkhu sduwlflsdqwv lq wkh wuldo 6xeplwwlqj rujdqlvdwlrqv xqghuolqh wkdw wkhuh duh qr phfkdqlvpv wr hqvxuh wkdw shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv vwloo olylqj lq lqvwlwxwlrqv kdyh dffhvv wr iuhh ohjdo dlg vhuylfhv kwwsvrpexgvpdqpgzsfrqwhqwxsordgv5dsruwbvshfldobghfhvb,qvshfwrudwxoghsrolwlh&klvlqdxsgi kwwsrpexgvpdqpgzsfrqwhqwxsordgv%5$*87$b5dsruwbsgib),1$/sgi kwwsvzzzrkfkurujvlwhvghidxowilohvgrfxphqwvkuerglhvvswrsfdwqsp7ruwxuh3uhyhqwlrq5hsxeolf0rogrydsgi kwwsvfgsgpgzsfrqwhqwxsordgv6wxglxb&’3’bbdffhvmxvwlwlh3’bsgi s kwwsvhjdolwdwhpgzsfrqwhqwxsordgv$yl]duwvl&3&byrwdwsgi )hhgedfn iurp ,5 zkr lv wkh prwkhu ri &5 d ihpdoh zlwk kljk vxssruw qhhgv xvlqj qrqyhuedo frppxqlfdwlrq ³,q wkh fdvh lq zklfk p gdxjkwhu lv d ylfwlp ri wruwxuh zklfk lv dw wkh iluvw lqvwdqfh wuldo vwdjh , fdq vd wkdw , dp vdwlvilhg zlwk wkh txdolw ri wkh zrun ri wkh odzhuv 9dohuldq 0dpdoljd dqg &hedqdю $oh[dqgux 7kdqnv wr wkhp wkh fdvh kdv ehhq eurxjkw wr frxuw ,w lv wkh iluvw fdvh ri lwv nlqg exw , gr qrw djuhh wkdw wkh fulplqdo frxuw zkhuh p gdxjkwhu lv d ylfwlp lv surorqjlqj wkh wuldo ,w lv douhdg wkh wklug mxgjh zkr lv vwduwlqj wr h[dplqh wkh fulplqdo fdvh diwhu wzr ri wkhp kdyh douhdg uhihuuhg wkh fdvh wr dqrwkhu mxgjh iru ydulrxv uhdvrqv´ 6xjjhvwhg txhvwlrqv wr wkh *ryhuqphqw ri wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd :kdw vwhsv duh fxuuhqwo ehlqj wdnhq e wkh 0rogrydq dxwkrulwlhv wr uhylvh wkh fulplqdo surfhgxuh ohjlvodwlrq lq rughu wr derolvk wkh lqvdqlw ghihqfh dqg ilqglqjv ri luuhvsrqvlelolw wr hqvxuh wkdw shuvrqv zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv zkr duh lq frqiolfw zlwk wkh fulplqdo odz kdyh dffhvv wr d idlu wuldo” :kdw vwhsv duh fxuuhqwo ehlqj wdnhq e wkh vwdwh wr hqvxuh wkdw wkh vwdwhphqwv ri ylfwlpv dqg zlwqhvvhv zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv duh gxo wdnhq lqwr frqvlghudwlrq lq fulplqdo surfhhglqjv” :kdw sodqv kdyh ehhq dgrswhg dqg vwhsv kdyh ehhq wdnhq wr hqvxuh wkdw shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv uhfhlyh surfhgxudo dffrpprgdwlrqv zkhq h[huflvlqj wkhlu uljkw wr dffhvv wr mxvwlfh” :kdw phdvxuhv duh fxuuhqwo ehlqj xvhg wr phdvxuh wkh ghjuhh ri vdwlvidfwlrq ri shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv zlwk iuhh ohjdo dlg vhuylfhv” +rz grhv wkh vwdwh sduw hqvxuh wkdw shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv olylqj lq lqvwlwxwlrqv kdyh dffhvv wr iuhh ohjdo dlg vhuylfhv” +rz grhv wkh vwdwh hqvxuh wkh txdolw ri wkhvh vhuylfhv dqg wkdw wkh uhiohfw wkh zloo dqg suhihuhqfhv ri wkhlu folhqwv zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv” 9 /lehuw dqg vhfxulw ri wkh shuvrq $uwlfoh )uhhgrp iurp wruwxuh dqg fuxho lqkxpdq ru ghjudglqj wuhdwphqw ru sxqlvkphqw duw 3urwhfwlqj wkh lqwhjulw ri wkh shuvrq $uwlfoh +hdowk $uwlfoh 3huvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv sodfhgolylqj lq svfkldwulf dqg uhvlghqwldo lqvwlwxwlrqv vxfk dv 7hpsrudu 3odfhphqw &hqwuhv iru 3huvrqv zlwk ‘lvdelolwlhv dqg svfkldwulf krvslwdov kdyh ehhq irxqg rq vhyhudo rffdvlrqv wr eh vxemhfwhg wr loowuhdwphqw vh[xdo ylrohqfh lqfoxglqj udsh irufhg vwhulolvdwlrq dqg irufhg oderxu erwk e wkh vwdii ri wkhvh lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg e rwkhu uhvlghqwv 9dolglw dqg ,’20 ilohg wkh fdvh ri ,& y 7kh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd zlwk wkh (xurshdq &rxuw ri +xpdq 5ljkwv rq -xo ,q wklv fdvh lw zdv dujxhg wkdw wkh 0rogrydq $ uhohydqw h[dpsoh lv wkh (&+5 mxgjhphqw iurp )heuxdu lq wkh fdvh ri *0 dqg 2wkhuv y wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd dydlodeoh dw kwwsvkxgrfhfkufrhlqwhqj^grfxphqwfroohfwlrqlg>*5$1’&+$0%(5&+$0%(5@lwhplg>@` *ryhuqphqw kdg hqvodyhg d zrpdq zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo glvdelolwlhv 7kurxjk d vwdwhvdqfwlrqhg frqwudfw wkh dssolfdqw kdg ehhq sodfhg rq d idup zkhuh vkh zdv vxemhfw wr udsh dqg irufhg oderxu iru ryhu ilyh hduv ‘xulqj wklv wlph vkh wulhg wr hvfdsh rq qxphurxv rffdvlrqv hw vkh zdv eurxjkw edfn hdfk wlph zlwk wkh mxvwlilfdwlrq wkdw vkh kdg qr rwkhu sodfh wr jr $ovr lq wkh hqvxlqj fulplqdo surfhhglqjv wkh grphvwlf frxuwv dftxlwwhg wkh shushwudwru ri udsh dqg wudiilfnlqj rq wkh jurxqg wkdw wkh shuvrq zlwk glvdelolwlhv kdg olyhg rq wkh idup lq dffrugdqfh zlwk wkh ohjdo surylvlrqv lq irufh 7kh fdvh zdv frppxqlfdwhg wr wkh 0rogrydq *ryhuqphqw rq -dqxdu 7kh h[fkdqjh ri revhuydwlrqv lv qrz forvhg dqg vxeplwwlqj rujdqlvdwlrqv wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh dssolfdqw duh qrz dzdlwlqj wkh &rxuw¶v mxgjphqw :h kdyh dovr dvnhg iru d uhihuudo wr wkh *udqg &kdpehu iru wklv fdvh ,q dqrwkhu fdvh zklfk zdv ilohg e 9dolglw dqg ,’20 wkh fdvh ri 9, y 7kh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd qr vxeplwwlqj rujdqlvdwlrqv duh dovr dzdlwlqj mxgjphqw e wkh (&w+5 7klv fdvh frqfhuqv doohjdwlrqv ri lqkxpdq dqg ghjudglqj wuhdwphqw dv zhoo dv irufhg wuhdwphqw ri d er lq d svfkldwulf krvslwdo lq &rgux ,q sduwlfxodu lw kdv ehhq doohjhg wkdw wkh dgplqlvwudwlrq ri svfkrwurslf guxjv wr wkh dssolfdqw zkr zdv d plqru dprxqwhg wr wruwxuh $ mxgjphqw lv h[shfwhg lq wkh frxuvh ri &rpsodlqwv iurp uhvlghqwv zkr kdyh h[shulhqfhg wruwxuh dqg loowuhdwphqw lq forvhg lqvwlwxwlrqv duh uduho lqyhvwljdwhg e survhfxwruv ehfdxvh ri wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw shrsoh zlwk phqwdo glvdelolwlhv duh xquholdeoh dqg frqvhtxhqwo vxfk doohjdwlrqv duh lqdffxudwh ,w riwhq kdsshqv wkdw shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv ³zlwk edg ehkdylru´ duh lqfdufhudwhg lq vshfldo ³vwulfwo vxshuylvhg zdugv´ iru lvrodwlrq zlwkrxw ehlqj doorzhg wr kdyh whohskrqhv ru rwkhu phdqv ri frqwdfw zlwk wkh rxwvlgh zruog 7kh duh qrw surylghg zlwk dq phfkdqlvp wr frpsodlq ehlqj olwhudoo ghsulyhg ri shq dqg sdshu ,vrodwlrq lv dssolhg wr fdop wkh shuvrq grzq zkr frqvhtxhqwo orvhv doo ghvluh wr frpsodlq wr dqrqh ,q edvhg rq wkh dgyrfdf prqlwrulqj dqg hydoxdwlrq dfwlylw ri ,’20 wkh 0lqlvwu ri +hdowk /derxu dqg 6rfldo 3urwhfwlrq rughuhg phdvxuhv wr forvh wkh vwulfwo vxshuylvhg zdugv lq uhvlghqwldo lqvwlwxwlrqv +rzhyhu ,’20 kdv vwloo uhfhlyhg frpsodlqwv iurp 7hpsrudu 3odfhphqw &hqwuhv uhvlghqwv zkr fodlp wkdw wkh duh vwloo ehlqj khog lq ³vwulfwo vxshuylvhg zdugv´ ,’20 kdv frqgxfwhg prqlwrulqj ylvlwv wr svfkldwulf krvslwdov dqg 7hpsrudu 3odfhphqw &hqwuhv iru 3huvrqv zlwk ‘lvdelolwlhv dqg kdv grfxphqwhg zlghvsuhdg kxpdq uljkwv ylrodwlrqv lqfoxglqj wkh xvh ri irufhg svfkldwulf wuhdwphqw ryhufurzglqj dqg wkh xvh ri uhvwudlqwv dqg vhfoxvlrq whfkqltxhv wr frqwuro ghwdlqhhv ,qyhvwljdwlrqv e ,’20 kdyh vkrzq wkdw lqvwlwxwlrqdolvhg shuvrqv zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrorjlfdo glvdelolwlhv sduwlfxoduo zrphq dqg jluov duh iuhtxhqwo vxemhfwhg wr kwwsvkxgrfhfkufrhlqw^dssqr>@grfxphqwfroohfwlrqlg>-8’*0(176'(&,6,216&20081,&$7(‘&$6(6@lwhplg>@` śƚƚɖɛ͗ͬͬśƶěžđ͘ğđśƌ͘đžğ͘ŝŷƚͬηйϯϯăɖɖŷžйϯϯ͗йϯϯϯϲϰϯϲͬϯϯйϯϯ͕йϯϯěžđƶŵğŷƚđžůůğđƚŝžŷŝěϯйϯϯ͗йϯϯ:h’ded^йϯϯ͕йϯϯ/^/ke^йϯϯ͕йϯϯkddhe/d^^йϯϯ͘ kwwslgrppgplqlvwurikhdowkoderxudqgvrfldosurwhfwlrqjlyhvdvvxudqfhvwkdwuljxurxvvxuyhloodqfhvhfwlrqvlqsvfkrqhxurorjlfdoerduglqjkrxvhvzlooehforvhg )lqglqjv duh rq iloh zlwk ,’20 dexvh dqg ylrohqfh lqfoxglqj skvlfdo dqg yhuedo dexvh lpprelolvdwlrq lqvxowv uhvwulfwlrqv ri irrg khdowkfduh dqg rwkhu vhuylfhv ghjudglqj frqglwlrqv dqg lvrodwlrq )hhgedfn iurp &5 d pdq zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv 5hjduglqj wkh lvrodwlrq ri sdwlhqwv lq forvhg zdugv , fdq vd derxw wkh whpsrudu sodfhphqw fhqwuh iru shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv lq %dowl wkdw wklv nlqg ri sudfwlfh vwloo shuvlvwv hyhq uhfhqwo , zdv shuvrqdoo orfnhg xs lq wkh forvhg zdug ri wklv fhqwuh zkhuh , zdv nhsw iru derxw wkuhh gdv loohjdoo ehfdxvh , dp frqvlghuhg dq lqfrqyhqlhqw shuvrq iru wkh sodfhphqw fhqwuh ehfdxvh , nqrz p uljkwv dqg , riwhq wxuq wr gliihuhqw rujdqlvdwlrqv dqg wr wkh rpexgvpdq zlwk frpsodlqwv derxw wkh loohjdo ehkdylrxu ri wkh zrunhuv ri wkh sodfhphqw fhqwuh´ )hhgedfn iurp 5, zkr lv wkh prwkhu ri &5 ³wkh dfw ri wruwxuh frpplwwhg e grfwruv dw p gdxjkwhu¶v svfkldwulf zdug kdv ehhq hvwdeolvkhg exw wkhuh lv qr luuhyrfdeoh ghflvlrq lq wkh fulplqdo fdvh hw dqg wkh surfhhglqjv duh ghodhg« , fdq whoo rx wkdw lq wkh svfkldwulf zdug wkh grfwruvkhdowk zrunhuv gr qrw ehdw wkh sdwlhqwv wkh rqo xvh µohjdo¶ frhuflyh phdvxuhv , vdz rqfh wkdw d shuvrq zdv wlhg xs lq wkh hyhqlqj dqg wkh zhuh douhdg iuhh lq wkh pruqlqj $iwhu vkh zdv lpprelolvhg dqg jlyhq wkh qhfhvvdu wuhdwphqw wkh zhuh qlfh wr khu 7klqjv kdyh fkdqjhg iurp ehiruh 7kh grfwruv duh pxfk pruh surihvvlrqdo wkh jdyh khu d vhsdudwh urrp dqg wkh sxw wzr grfwruv wr wdnh fduh ri khu 7kh qxuvhv dovr ehkdyh ehwwhu zlwk wkh sdwlhqwv «´ 6xjjhvwhg txhvwlrqv wr wkh *ryhuqphqw ri wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd :kdw hiiruwv kdyh ehhq pdgh vr wkdw wkh ohjdo hqylurqphqw dqg wkh lpsohphqwdwlrq wkhuhri lqfoxglqj phglfdo dqg iruhqvlf svfkldwulf wuhdwphqw duh lq dffrugdqfh zlwk wkh &rpplwwhh¶v *xlgholqhv rq $uwlfoh ri wkh &53′” 6shflilfdoo zkhq zloo lqyroxqwdu ghwhqwlrq dqg wuhdwphqw rq wkh edvlv ri glvdelolw dorqh ru lq frqmxqfwlrq zlwk rwkhu idfwruv eh derolvkhg” :kdw hiiruwv kdyh ehhq pdgh vr wkdw yroxqwdu vroxwlrqv edvhg rq lqiruphg frqvhqw vxssruwlqj shuvrqv zlwk svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv wdnh wkh sodfh ri svfkldwulf wuhdwphqw edvhg rq frqilqhphqw” :kdw vwhsv kdyh ehhq wdnhq wr wkrurxjko lqyhvwljdwh doohjdwlrqv ri shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv zkr kdyh h[shulhqfhg wruwxuh dqg loowuhdwphqw” +rz pdq ³vwulfwo vxshuylvhg zdugv´ duh lq xvh dqg zkhq zloo wkhvh eh frpsohwho forvhg grzq” 9, /lylqj lqghshqghqwo dqg lqfoxvlrq lq wkh frppxqlw $uwlfoh $ffruglqj wr sdudjudsk ri wkh &rpelqhg vhfrqg dqg wklug shulrglf uhsruwv vxeplwwhg e wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd xqghu duwlfoh ri wkh &53’ &53’&0’$ wkh 0rogrydq *ryhuqphqw dssuryhg wkh ± 1dwlrqdo 3urjudp iru ghlqvwlwxwlrqdolvdwlrq ri shuvrqv zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv iurp uhvlghqwldo lqvwlwxwlrqv 7kh grfxphqw dlpv wr ghlqvwlwxwlrqdolvh ri shuvrqv zlwk )lqglqjv duh rq iloh zlwk ,’20 glvdelolwlhv olylqj lq lqvwlwxwlrqv e dqg zdqwv wr surylgh wkhp zlwk wkh vxssruw wr olyh lqghshqghqwo lq wkh frppxqlw +rzhyhu xqghu frppxqlwedvhg vhuylfhv pdlqo vpdoo jurxs krphv zhuh sodqqhg wr eh fuhdwhg iru xs wr shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv ‘xulqj wkh uhsruwhg shulrg jurxs krphv zhuh ghyhorshg iru shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv uhtxlulqj ³ krxuv ri fduh´ dqg jurxs krphv ³vxssruwhg olylqj vhuylfhv´ zhuh fuhdwhg iru shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv uhtxlulqj ³ohvv vxssruw´ iurp wkh vwdwh exgjhw 7kh 6wdwh 5hsruw vwdwhv wkdw/ ³wr suhyhqw lqvwlwxwlrqdolvdwlrq dqg idflolwdwh wkh lqfoxvlrq ri shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv lq wkh frppxqlw wkh iroorzlqj vhuylfhv zhuh ixqfwlrqdo lq 6kduhg olylqj vhuylfhv idplowsh sodfhphqw vhuylfh iru dgxowv dqg hoghuo shrsoh zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv 5hvslwh vhuylfhv iru fkloguhq dqg dgxowv shu hdu rqh shuvrq fdq ehqhilw iurp 5hvslwh vhuylfh gdv shu hdu«´ +rzhyhu wkhvh ³frppxqlwedvhg vhuylfhv´ duh fohduo lq ylrodwlrq ri wkh &53′ dqg wkh &53’ &rpplwwhh¶v *hqhudo frpphqw 1r rq olylqj lqghshqghqwo dqg ehlqj lqfoxghg lq wkh frppxqlw duw ri wkh &rqyhqwlrq dqg wkh ‘, *xlgholqhv 7kh 6wdwh 5hsruw vwdwhv wkdw lq gdfduh fhqwuhv iru derxw shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv fkloguhq dqg dgxowv zhuh rshudwlqj dv irupv ri ³frppxqlwedvhg vhuylfhv´ $ffruglqj wr wkh ‘, *xlgholqhv ³ghilqlwlrqv ri frppxqlwedvhg vxssruw vhuylfhv lqfoxglqj lqkrph dqg rwkhu vxssruw vhuylfhv dqg shuvrqdo dvvlvwdqfh vkrxog suhyhqw wkh hphujhqfh ri qhz vhjuhjdwhg vhuylfhv vxfk dv jurxs krxvlqj ± lqfoxglqj vpdoo jurxs krphv ± vkhowhuhg zrunvkrsv lqvwlwxwlrqv iru wkh surylvlrq ri uhvslwh fduh wudqvlw krphv gdfduh fhqwuhv«´ ,q vhyhudo forvhg lqvwlwxwlrqv iru shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv lqglylgxdo dvvlvwdqfh sodqv iru wkh uhvlghqwv kdyh ehhq ghyhorshg irfxvlqj rq vxssruw phdvxuhv pdlqo ri d phglfdo qdwxuh lqfoxglqj uhkdelolwdwlrq +rzhyhu dffruglqj wr vxeplwwlqj rujdqlvdwlrqv shuvrqv ghsulyhg ri wkhlu olehuw dqg irufhg wr olyh lq forvhg vhwwlqjv fdqqrw h[huflvh wkhlu uljkw wr vxssruw lq h[huflvlqj ohjdo fdsdflw ,q wkh frqwh[w ri ghlqvwlwxwlrqdolvdwlrq hiiruwv lqglylgxdo sodqv vkrxog iroorz wkh jxlgdqfh jlyhq e wkh &53’ &rpplwwhh lq lwv ‘, *xlgholqhv $ffruglqj wr d uhsruw ri wkh 0rogrydq 2pexgvpdq iurp frqfhuqlqj kxpdq uljkwv frpsoldqfh lq wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd wkh 2pexgvpdq dovr irxqg wkh surfhvv ri ghlqvwlwxwlrqdolvdwlrq ri shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv wr eh iodzhg 7khuh kdv ehhq qr vljqlilfdqw surjuhvv lq whupv ri vrfldo lqfoxvlrq ri shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv 7kh &rpelqhg vhfrqg dqg wklug shulrglf uhsruwv vxeplwwhg e wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd xqghu duwlfoh ri wkh &53′ &53’&0’$ 3dud ,elg 3dud &53′ &rpplwwhh *xlgholqhv rq ghlqvwlwxwlrqdolvdwlrq lqfoxglqj lq hphujhqflhv &53’& sdud &rpelqhg vhfrqg dqg wklug shulrglf uhsruwv vxeplwwhg e wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd xqghu duwlfoh ri wkh &53′ &53’&0’$ 3dud &53’ &rpplwwhh *xlgholqhv rq ghlqvwlwxwlrqdolvdwlrq lqfoxglqj lq hphujhqflhv &53’& sdud 2pexgvpdq uhsruwv frqwlqxlqj wr uhfhlyh frpsodlqwv zklfk vkrz d idloxuh wr lpsuryh wkh vlwxdwlrq )hhgedfn 5& d pdq zlwk lqwhoohfwxdo dqg svfkrvrfldo glvdelolwlhv ³, fdq vd wkdw wkhuh duh sureohpv lq whupv ri lqfoxvlrq lq wkh frppxqlw ehfdxvh wkh frppxqlw lv qrw prudoo uhdg wr zhofrph xv dqg wkh glvdeohg shrsoh iurp wkh whpsrudu sodfhphqw fhqwuhv lqwr wkhlu flufoh ehfdxvh wkh kdyh edg rslqlrqv derxw xv 7kh frqvlghu xv gdqjhurxv dqg wkh orfdo dxwkrulwlhv dqg vhuylfhv lq wkh frppxqlw duh qrw uhdg wr jlyh xv wkh ohjdo vxssruw wr dffrpprgdwh xv lq wkh frppxqlw 3huvrqdoo , wulhg wr lqwhjudwh lq p krphwrzq exw , kdg sureohpv zlwk wkh pdru¶v riilfh zklfk glg qrw zdqw wr khos ph dqg glg qrw jlyh ph dq vxssruw´ 6xjjhvwhg txhvwlrqv wr wkh *ryhuqphqw ri wkh 5hsxeolf ri 0rogryd ‘hvfuleh zkdw hiiruwv kdyh ehhq pdgh vr wkdw 0rogryd¶v ghlqvwlwxwlrqdolvdwlrq srolf dqg sodqv duh eh lq olqh zlwk wkh &rqyhqwlrq $uwlfoh *hqhudo frpphqw 1r dqg wkh &rpplwwhh¶v *xlgholqhv rq ghlqvwlwxwlrqdol]dwlrq lqfoxglqj lq hphujhqflhv &53’&” :kdw hiiruwv kdyh ehhq pdgh wr hqvxuh wkdw frppxqlwedvhg vxssruw vhuylfhv dvvlvwlqj lqghshqghqw olylqj duh dydlodeoh wr doo shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv wkdw wkh duh dghtxdwh dqg dffhvvleoh dqg dydlodeoh durxqg wkh forfn” 9,, :run dqg hpsorphqw $uwlfoh 7kh gdwd dydlodeoh vxjjhvw wkdw dffhvv wr wkh oderxu pdunhw iru shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv lv olplwhg dqg wkhlu hpsorphqw udwh lv pxfk orzhu wkdq wkdw ri wkh jhqhudo srsxodwlrq ‘lvfxvvlrqv zlwk dqg uhsolhv iurp uhsuhvhqwdwlyhv ri 1dwlrqdo (psorphqw $jhqf $12)0 dqg whuulwruldo vxeglylvlrqv ri wkh $jhqf vkrz wkdw dffruglqj wr wkhlu lqirupdwlrq vvwhp mrevhhnhuv zlwk glvdelolwlhv duh uhjlvwhuhg zlwkrxw vshflilqj wkh fdwhjru ri glvdelolwlhv $w suhvhqw glvdelolw fhuwlilfdwhv jhqhudoo suhvhuyh wkh shufhqwdjh ri wkh shuvrq¶v zrun fdsdflw exw dv dq h[dpsoh d shuvrq zlwk orfrprwru glvdelolwlhv frxog eh deoh wr shuirup vrph zrun exw wkh fhuwlilfdwh zloo vwdwh wkhlu jhqhudo fdsdflw wr zrun lv 7khuh lv qr dvvhvvphqw ri wkh shuvrqv delolw wr shuirup fhuwdlq mrev rqo uhfrpphqgdwlrqv ru surklelwlrqv qrw wr shuirup fhuwdlq mrev $ffruglqj wr $12)0 gxulqj wkh hdu zlwk wkh vxssruw ri wkh whuulwruldo vxeglylvlrqv iru hpsorphqw shrsoh zhuh sodfhg lq wkh oderxu ilhog ri zklfk shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv dqg rxw ri xqhpsorhg duh shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv $ffruglqj wr $uwlfoh sdud ri wkh /dz rq wkh vrfldo lqfoxvlrq ri shuvrqv zlwk glvdelolwlhv (psorhuv uhjdugohvv ri wkh irup ri ohjdo rujdqlvdwlrq zkr dffruglqj wr wkh vwdiilqj vfkhph kdyh hpsorhhv dqg pruh fuhdwh ru uhvhuyh mrev dqg hpsor shrsoh zlwk glvdelolwlhv lq d shufhqwdjh ri dw ohdvw shufhqw iurp wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri kwwsvrpexgvpdqpgsrvwgrfxphqwuhsruwrqwkhrevhuydqfhrikxpdquljkwvlqwkhuhsxeolfriprogrydlq kwwsvdqrippgurqrgh”iefolg ,z$5[tx(s
